Many would say that this is true of every year that has gone by : but 2023 was unique in more ways than one. This was the year which saw the formal entry of Chat GPT and Artificial General Intelligence in the discourse of almost everything around us – from script writing to robotics, security and defence, from helping chefs decide on menus to grandparents seeking assistance to tell a new fairy tale as they tucked the little ones to bed. Wikipedia too has an option of seeking help from the AI, and the response is more comprehensive than that available on the wiki page, for AI goes beyond ‘single source information’.
This was also the year to mark the end of the UN system as we know it. Not only has it failed miserably to address the issue of the long-standing war between Russia and Ukraine, it could not arrest the blitzkrieg in Gaza which has left thousands dead and dying. The UNSC has become a sound box which is literally ‘full of sound and fury, signifying nothing’, and India has gone on record stating that unless the membership is expanded to reflect the current economic and geopolitical reality, it looks more like a jaded club.
Another trend that has not received the attention it deserved was the overall decline of fertility rates across the world. It is true that the world population may take another decade or so to peak, but then the decline of global population will bring in its wake a different set of problems which are currently being faced in an extreme form in Germany, Japan and Korea. Even in India, with the exception of 28 aspirational districts in the Hindi speaking states, the TFR is now less than 2.1 which is the optimum reproductive rate to keep the population stable. The Malthusian argument of an ever-increasing world population with fewer and fewer resources has been thoroughly debunked, and many countries are now incentivizing their citizens to have more children.
The fourth trend is that the ‘state’ is not the only actor on the world stage. Many non-state actors – from Hamas in Gaza to mercenary groups which are willing to lend their support to whoever has the ‘gold’ to pay for their services. These non-state actors also include missionaries who ‘harvest souls’ in the less well-endowed parts of the world. These, along with illegal migration have a major demographic impact, which has all the potential to create both social and political disruptions.
Last, but not the least is the scope for India to make a mark on the global stage given the unique constellation of forces : the US and China are both in decline mode, Europe will take its own time resurrect, Africa is rising, but there are readbacks to be cleared, but as far as India is concerned, the Amrit Kaal is ‘here and now’.
