Once it became clear that ‘independents’ representing Imran Khan’s PTI were winning the most seats in the Pakistan General Elections, the announcement of results was slowed down by the establishment to a trickle. This is a clear indication that the military’s efforts to break Imran Khan’s hold over the Pakistani public had failed. However, it did succeed in thwarting the PTI from getting the thumping majority it would have got if Imran had been out of jail and campaigning. International pressure has assured that there was some semblance of fairness in the counting of votes, although the PTI is claiming there was widespread rigging and backed it up with evidence on social media. (With use of ballot papers, this has been the usual practice in elections by parties in their areas of influence across the sub-continent.)
Very often, analysts tend to undervalue the role of voting in democracy, but these elections have shown that no matter how much vested interests try, given the opportunity, the people can make their opinion known. This is what distinguishes a democracy from other systems. Although the vote percentage was lower than that in other countries, it has still reflected the public mandate. Also, quite significantly, the electorate has rejected the mullah-led parties, which is another indicator of changing times.
The establishment will now try to cobble up a government with former PM Nawaz Sharif at the helm. That was its strategy from the beginning as it attempted to remove Imran Khan from the contest by incarcerating him in jail on mostly cooked up and exaggerated charges. Unfortunately, it has not worked effectively enough, and Sharif will be leading a lame duck government, which Pakistan cannot afford in its present dire circumstances. The economy has been tanking for quite some time, the latest symptom of which is the exodus of industries, business houses and capital to Dubai. It is also unlikely that Sharif will be able to rebuild relations with India. The increasing number of terrorist attacks indicates the growing strength of insurgencies that can only be dealt with politically.
It is hard to say what path Pakistan should take to overcome these difficulties. The military-Nawaz tie-up cannot last for long, nor make any impact on the economy. Perhaps, everybody will have to swallow their pride and come up with a ‘national government’ that includes Imran Khan. That will require his release from jail and excluding the military from the political process. Can it, will it be done?
