As incumbents, the BJP in Madhya Pradesh and the Congress in Rajasthan will face a difficult task in getting the necessary support to win in the coming assembly elections. However, it can be said that the anti-incumbency factor in MP is less for the BJP, despite its having been in power for fifteen years. In Rajasthan, poor governance has combined with serious in-party factionalism and it will take nothing short of a miracle for the Congress to make a comeback.
Considering the fact that the Lok Sabha election is not too far away, both parties will be more than usual eager to win, as public perceptions can build on the results. It must not be forgotten, however, that state and national elections are actually fought on different criteria. Local factors and factionalism have a much greater role to play in the former. There is no greater example of this than the recent Himachal and Karnataka elections. State level satraps and local caste-community rivalries paid as big a role as bad governance. It is this realisation that has brought former allies, the BJP and JD(S), back together for the Lok Sabha contest in Karnataka. It is also why senior MPs and Ministers from the Centre are being fielded by the BJP in MP for the state polls.
At the same time, it is important for smaller, regional parties – many of which are part of the INDI Alliance at the present – to consider how beneficial it is for the two ‘national’ parties to have it out in so many electorally significant states. Win or lose, the BJP is not going to disappear, nor will the Congress. What will happen in two-sided contests is that the space for the regional parties will gradually disappear, leading to the kind of fate the BSP faces at present. How good is that for democracy?
It may be necessary that, at the national level there has to be clear mandate for the ruling alliance, as there needs to be ideological certainty and decisiveness. However, is it not better that the states have more ‘representative’ legislatures that reflect every body of opinion? One reason that this is not coming about to the extent required is the delayed delimitation, as that would ensure sufficient availability of seats for a clearer reflection of public opinion. This would help parties across the board, be it at the national or the regional level. Till then, politics will remain hostage to the irrational and the whimsical.
