The deaths of Iran President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and others in a helicopter crash are being described as ‘not too disruptive’ for the future of that nation. This is without a doubt wishful thinking because Iran is already in a very difficult position. Ostracized by the dominant West ever since the fundamentalist revolution took place, and in near perpetual conflict with the Sunni Muslim nations, it has taken many years for it to achieve a balance in foreign relations. In recent times, the Ukraine-Russian conflict and the anti-Hamas operation by Israel have also posed challenges. It has had to increase its dependence on Russia and China to survive the challenges. All of this was being dealt with by the President and the Foreign Minister.
It may be recalled that, recently, Iran has had standoffs even on its border with Pakistan, as also difficult relations with Afghanistan. All of these have been kept from escalating, the credit for which should naturally go to the deceased leaders. Given its radical attitude to Israel, Iran has also stood staunchly with the Palestinians, along with its closest allies – Syria and the Houthis. It has done all in its power to extend support without crossing the line that would bring it in direct conflict with other nations. Be it the nuclear agreement issue with the US, or relations with Arab nations, a balance has been maintained. Will the leadership issues in Iran that have now emerged be handled deftly enough to ensure matters do not go out of control?
Not so long ago, Iran also faced the agitation by women against the imposition of the head scarf and all that it implies. This sentiment continues to be pushed down with great brutality. While the fundamental principles of the nation are dictated by the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, the actual implementation is done by those constituting the government. Will the challenge of appointing the new President and Foreign Minister be easily overcome, or will elections be required?
The situation poses a challenge also to India, which has maintained good relations with Iran despite opposition from Western governments. How will, for instance, the Chabahar Port agreement signed recently between the two countries be affected? What will be the approach of the new leaders? An entire web of international relations will need to be protected to keep things even near normal. And what if it turns out, as is already being alleged, that Israel had a hand in the helicopter crash? That will take matters to another level for the new leadership to deal with.
