What is actual population of Dehradun city?
By Arun Pratap Singh
Dehradun, 11 Mar: With the 2021 Census having been postponed in the country on account of Covid-19 pandemic till October 2023, estimating the actual population of Dehradun city becomes a pure guess work. However, there are huge indicators to suggest that there has been an exponential growth in the decade since the last census that was conducted in the year 2011. There are several factors that can be attributed behind the exponential growth in Dehradun’s population. Among the major factors are large scale migration from the hills to the state capital of Dehradun, and this trend continues still unabated. Besides this, there has also been huge migration to Dehradun from other states and mainly from several districts of Uttar Pradesh such as Saharanpur, Bijnor (and from several towns in Bijnor districts such as Najeebabad, Nagina, etc), Muzaffarnagar and even from Eastern UP. Another factor is the inclusion of large number of villages in Dehradun districts into the Dehradun Municipal Corporation area in past 15 years, thus leading to quantum hike at one go in urban population of Dehradun city.
In addition, there have been other reasons as well. A significant number of people, especially the youth who had migrated to and settled in metropolitan cities like Delhi and Mumbai etc had to return to the city during Covid-19 pandemic and the resultant lockdown having lost their jobs and source of income. Many of them have settled in Dehradun since and are trying to settle down here as entrepreneurs big or small. In view of these factors, it sounds intriguing and interesting to make a serious attempt to estimate the current population of Dehradun city since the next census is still some time away. This estimation can also help in working out the carrying capacity of Dehradun as a city.
Speaking to Garhwal Post, noted social activist and founder of Social Development for Communities (SDC) Foundation, Anoop Nautiyal, stated that he along with his team has made an attempt to estimate the current population of the Dehradun city after being intrigued by the issue. He informed that he had even taken help from friends through social media platforms in this task. While many of his friends estimated the current population of the city to be ranging from 8 to 12 lakh, he also decided to do some fact finding and reach an estimate based on this research. He estimates the current population of the capital city to be in the range of 11.5 to 12 lakh. To reach this estimate, he has used three key data bases. One was the Dehradun district Census of 2011, the data related to Dehradun’s Municipal Elections held in November 2018 and the comparative data related to 2012 and 2022 Assembly elections.
The Dehradun District 2011 Census is a massive, bulky document with many insights on the district and its cities, towns, cantonment boards and rural areas. The population of the district of Dehradun as per the 2011 Census is 16,96,694 (16.967 lakhs). However this was the population of the entire district in the year 2011. This data serves as a good base towards estimating the current level of the population according to Nautiyal and therefore this data base has been used as a key data base by him.
Nautiyal has also used the data base related to the Municipal elections held in Dehradun in November 2018. It will be pertinent to point out here that the municipal elections in Dehradun were held after the delimitation exercise where the number of municipal wards was increased to 100. Nautiyal reminds that after the delimitation exercise of 2018, the municipal area of Dehradun city increased from 65 square kilometres to 195 square kilometres. As far as number of voters in 2018 elections are considered, there were 6.287 lakh voters in the municipal elections.
Nautiyal also used the comparative electoral data of the assembly elections of January 2012 and February 2022. He says, “Of the ten assembly constituencies in the district of Dehradun, the assemblies of Dharampur, Dehradun Cantt, Mussoorie, Rajpur Road and Raipur have traditionally been considered as “city” seats. The voters’ increase in the past decade from 2012 to 2022 is a telling and stark reminder of the massive increases that have happened in the population of these areas”.
He also reminded that, in the 2011 census, the rural, adjoining areas were not included in the population of the city of Dehradun. The local population of Raipur, Natthan Pur, Mehu Wala Mafi and Natthuwa Wala areas was not part of the urban population of Dehradun city in the 2011 census. This population which was over and above the population of Dehradun Municipal Corporation plus Out Growth then stood at 5,74,840. Since the census is an extremely detailed exercise, data is captured in a granular manner and urban areas are defined as municipal corporations, municipal boards, statutory towns, census towns, urban agglomerations, urban outgrowths etc.
He also points out that the population of Cantonment Boards of Dehradun Cantt and Clement Town are taken separately as per the census methodology and are not included in the Dehradun Municipal Corporation 2011 figures. However, from all practical perspectives, these areas are very much part of the Dehradun city and the vast majority of its residents form an integral part of the landscape of the city of Dehradun. For instance, the bustling and heavily populated area of Prem Nagar just ahead of the Indian Military Academy (IMA) is a part of the Dehradun Cantonment Board and not in the Municipal Corporation of Dehradun.
One more factor taken by Nautiyal into consideration is that the decadal growth in the district of Dehradun was 32.3 percent during the 2001-2011 census period and 41 percent during the 2012-2022 Vidhan Sabha electoral period. Compared to the 16. 967 lakh district population recorded in 2011, the population of the district of Dehradun was recorded at 12.82 lakhs in the 2001 census.
Anoop Nautiyal says that taking all these factors and data in consideration, he has estimated the current population of the city of Dehradun to be in the range of 11.5 to 12.0 However, he does put out a note of caution that this estimation is prone to errors despite all precautions as one had to use assumptions in absence of concrete recent data. A clear picture will emerge only after the next census and that there is an acute need for accurate data at all levels for robust policy making and efficient delivery of public services.