Exit Polls split on who will form Govt in U’khand

By Arun Pratap Singh
Dehradun, 7 Mar: The various exit polls regarding possible outcome of the results in Uttarakhand are split in their opinions. While a majority of the exit polls show a close fight between Congress and the BJP, some show Congress winning a majority or emerging as the single largest party. The rest are projecting a narrow win for the BJP. What is interesting, however, is that C Voter Exit polls project a 41 percent vote share for the BJP and 39 percent vote share for the Congress and yet show Congress ahead in the number of seats.
On the other hand, Axis (India Today-AajTak) and Chanakya (News 24) project a clear majority for the BJP. According to the News 24-Chanakya Exit Polls, 43 seats have been predicted for the BJP and 24 seats for the Congress with 3 seats going to the others. As per this survey, 34 percent of voters voted on the basis of the party and the candidate while 22 percent voters voted on the issues of development. At the same time, 13 per cent voters voted on the issue of corruption. As many as 52 percent of the voters believed that the issue of change in the government was not an issue for them, while it was an issue for 41 percent of voters.
According to the Axis (India Today-AajTak) exit polls, the BJP will manage to form the government once again in Uttarakhand, thereby retaining power. According to exit polls, BJP may get 36 to 46, Congress 20 to 30, BSP 2 to 4 and others 2 to 5.
It will be interesting to remind here that, in 2017, the only exit polls that were able to reach close to the actual results were Axis and Chanakya and both of them predict a BJP victory once again.
Yet another exit poll predicting a BJP win is India TV/CNX. According to this exit poll, BJP may get between 35-43 seats while Congress may get 24 to 32 seats with AAP not winning any seat while others might win between 2 and 4 sets.
The vote percentage as per ABP C-Voter’s estimate- BJP will get 41 percent votes in Uttarakhand, 39 percent votes for Congress in Uttarakhand, Aam Aadmi Party estimated at nine percent votes. Independents are projected with 11 percent of the vote. But still, the assessment is that in terms of seats, Congress will prevail over the BJP. According to it, Congress can get 32 to 38 seats, BJP 26 to 32 seats, AAP can get 0 to 2 seats and others can get 3 to 7 seats.
At the same time, those predicting a Congress win in Uttarakhand include Republic- P-MarQ Estimate, which has predicted 29 to 34 seats for the BJP, between 33 and 38 seats for the Congress, 1 to 3 seats for the BSP and also 1 to 3 seats for the others.
According to the India TV/Ground Zero Research Estimate Exit poll, BJP might win between 25 and 29, Congress between 37 and 41, others between 2 and 4 with AAP failing to win even a single seat.
According to Times Now/Navbharat Exit Polls, BJP is likely to retain power and form the next government. It has predicted 37 seats for BJP, 31 seats for Congress, 1 seat for AAP and 1 seat for others.