With the first phase of voting in the ongoing General Elections over, political parties will be rushing to evaluate the voting trends – the overall turnout, the impact of the hot weather, whether voting took place on expected lines, etc., and what changes in strategy need to be made. This is, of course, for states where voting is still to take place. In Uttarakhand, it is already game over and candidates will sweat through the coming days till 4 June. With six more phases to come, there is enough time for chopping and changing the approach if there is need and capacity to do so.
Reports on the voting trends that came in on 19 April were clear on certain aspects. Mainstream society has more or less decided which way to vote and there is little likelihood of changing its mind. This has made the mandate clear in areas where there are no ‘subaltern’ cross-currents on the basis of caste and other narrow interests. Uttarakhand, for instance, is clearly one such social set-up. On the other hand, after balancing reporting bias, the opposition parties have hope where there are local caste and community rivalries open to manipulation and aggravation. This already has been their focus and, based on the feedback, may see further accentuation. While some reflect an established pattern, new narratives are also being shaped, such as that of ‘Rajput’ dissatisfaction with the BJP in certain areas. Although, in the longer term, this may prove disastrous for this section, it could have an impact in certain constituencies, most probably by cutting down victory margins. Similarly, the Jats are being described as more inclined towards the BJP than before owing to new alliances at the top.
As feedback seeps through in the next few days, more will become known about emerging patterns as hundreds of on the spot reports will establish the trend. This is particularly important in the southern states where, according to the present narrative, the BJP is making a ‘big push’ to further establish its presence. How strong will the mainstream sentiment, particularly in the urban and semi-urban areas, be? Already, those lined up at the booths have spoken in terms not quite in line with the never-ending TV debates. A couple more phases and the trend should become clear, which will very likely affect the voting pattern further on. So, the contending parties need to intelligently interpret the feedback to fine-tune their campaigns and perform better. Later will be too late.
