It was always a difficult task – working out the permutations and combinations in seat sharing that would provide the INDI Alliance the maximum thrust against the BJP led NDA. This is being achieved in small steps by what remains of the coalition. Some success has been achieved in this context in Maharashtra by the Maha Vikas Aghadi and it will definitely enhance the ability of the alliance to put up a good fight. Not unexpectedly and after long negotiations, the Uddhav Thackeray led Shiv Sena has been granted the most seats, 21, followed by Congress with 17 and the NCP, 10.
It may be noted that the greatest difficulty faced in seat allocation has been in states where the Congress is the main contender. With the thought of who would lead the alliance should it win enough seats to form the government, the Congress has been reluctant to accommodate others. The MVA agreement has been possible because the Shiv Sena (UBT) is best positioned to challenge the NDA in Maharashtra, with Congress dependent on others’ votes. The NCP has been the most damaged because of defections and, anyway, has a limited area of influence.
The larger share for Shiv Sena (UBT) is essentially because the Maharashtra voters have, over the years, been increasingly saffronised. That there is even the chance of a contest is because the original BJP-Shiv Sena alliance collapsed. It will be a challenge for SS (UBT) to convince people that it represents the original values of Bala Saheb Thackeray despite being in cohorts with his arch-enemies. A difficult task indeed!
The hope is that the ‘secular’ parties will help compensate for the loss of ‘Hindutva’ voters. That this will prove a difficult task is highlighted by the failure to bring on board Prakash Ambedkar and his Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi. He does represent a small but committed section of voters that have an agenda similar to that of the BSP in UP. Also important is the transferability of each party’s votes. It is this lack of compatibility at the grassroots that led to the split in the Shiv Sena in the first place.
The NDA is hoping for good results from Maharashtra and the overall outcome will be shaped by what happens there. It will certainly reflect the general mood of the nation, unlike where results are likely to be mostly one way.
