It has become clear in a sizeable number of constituencies, nationwide, which candidate will be pitted against whom. This has brought further clarity on the likelihood of victories for each side. In some, there are straight contests between two candidates, while in others it is three-cornered. In some, even more. Statistically, therefore, it becomes easier for analysts to work out the various permutations and combinations based on caste, community and other interests.
The Kangana Ranaut versus Vikramaditya contest in Himachal’s Mandi, for instance, is between two prominent personalities whose presence to some extent becomes more significant than the ‘larger’ national issues over which the election is taking place. Before Vikramaditya’s entry, Kangana’s victory would have been considered a cakewalk. But, considering the dominance of the former Chief Minister, the late Virbhadra Singh, in the state’s politics, his scion draws on long term loyalties among the electorate. So, it is now a tougher fight for Kangana.
An example of a crucial three-cornered contest is in Wayanad, Kerala, where incumbent Rahul Gandhi is faced off primarily against the CPI’s Annie Raja and the NDA’s K Surendran. There are others in the contest, including a BSP candidate, but it becomes significant because the opposition alliance is split here between Gandhi and Raja. That’s a particular twist in the tale, as both depend greatly on the Muslim vote. Its importance becomes clearer from the fact that, extraordinarily, the Congress flag was not flown during his nomination rally just to keep that of ally Indian Union Muslim League’s from being displayed. If such strategies have to be adopted to win, how much confidence can a candidate be having in the electorate?
Every constituency where candidates have been declared has such local complexities that need to be factored in. Till now, the sum of these calculations have not shaken the general opinion that the NDA will return, as most bipolar contests, particularly in the Hindi Heartland, seem to be going in the BJP’s favour. Even as the opposition claims there is a ‘silent’ anti-incumbency wave, the reality seems quite the opposite. If there is a silent wave, it seems to be an ‘anti-anti-incumbency one’. In other words, even those who are staunchly against Prime Minister Modi for ideological reasons, are more averse to allowing in the disruptive social and economic policies being proposed by the Rahul Gandhi led Congress. In fact, a number of India’s youth making waves in various sectors of the economy are planning to exercise their vote just to keep such policies out. They would not have bothered to vote under normal circumstances. The turnout is going to reflect that sentiment. And then it will be time to blame the EVMs.
