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Karnataka Next

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When it comes to state assembly elections, while the Modi factor continues to play a big role, it is certainly not enough to overcome bad performance by an incumbent BJP government. This is particularly so in states where there are strong local leaders among the opposition. This became more than evident in Himachal Pradesh with the Congress coming to power despite just a couple of percent increase in vote share. There were other factors also in play but the overall lesson should be not to depend too much on Prime Minister Modi’s popularity. Going by the general mood in BJP circles, there seems to be complacency in this regard. If the party does not perform well in the states, it could even impact adversely on the General Elections.

The BJP’s strong point is that despite the performance of its governments, it has a sturdy cadre base at the grassroots, and efficient party machinery at work to calculate the forces at play and the issues that matter. In a state like Karnataka, for instance, the complexities are many. The fact that there is no straight fight against one opposition party, as the Congress and JD(S) to some extent divide the anti-BJP vote, is an important factor. There are also a large number of leaders in every party with personal followings based on caste and region. These will play a more powerful role if there is not enough pro-incumbency due to poor governance.

In a state with higher per capita income and beyond the ordinary parameters of development, the expectations of the people are also different. Social issues, community interests, individual egos begin to play a larger role, with overall growth indices being taken for granted. From the reports emerging out of Karnataka at the present, there is a lot of churn ongoing at the present in this regard. Considering that Karnataka will be an important milestone in the BJP’s bid to win the 2024 General Elections, the party is rolling out the usual Modi juggernaut. It will be interesting to note how well the nuances have been worked out and what lessons have been learned after the results are announced. The role of new-age spoilers such as AAP and AIMIM will become evident, as also that of some radical outfits testing the electoral waters.