By BK Joshi
Now that the hurly-burly’s done and the (electoral) battle’s lost and won, the big question that demands attention is: What does the mandate of this election represent? Is it simply a victory for one party (or coalition) and loss for another which is what all elections are about? Or is there a more important meaning to this result? More specifically: Does it represent the return to normal in Indian politics? If so, what is this so-called normal?
Let us go back in time a bit to see how the polity has fared at the national level in recent years. It was dominated by the Indian National Congress till 1977, with the period between 1975 and 1977 being that of the Emergency when normal political activity was suspended. The period after 1977 saw various ups and downs in the form of the triumph of the newly formed Janata Party post the emergency, collapse of the Janata experiment and return of the Congress party government in 1980 under Indira Gandhi. In 1984, the Congress came to power, after the assassination of Mrs Gandhi, with a large majority under Rajiv Gandhi. It couldn’t retain power in 1989 when the Janata Dal led coalition under VP Singh emerged victorious. Within two years, the Congress was back in power in an election marred by the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi. In 1991, a minority Congress government headed by Narsimha Rao assumed office. Bharatiya Janata Party governments led by Atal Behari Vajpayee between 1996 and 2004, return of the Congress government under Manmohan Singh between 2004 and 2014 – all coalitions followed. Finally, we had the BJP government led by Narendra Modi between 2014 and 2024. Though nominally called the National Democratic Alliance government, it was in fact a BJP government dominated by the personality of Narendra Modi. That brings us to the present election which has given the mandate to the NDA – a real, not nominal, coalition – led by the BJP under Modi. Thus, it should be clear that in recent years, especially after 1977, coalitions have been a regular feature of Indian politics, except for the decade between 2014 and 2024. A recent analysis in India Today has pointed out that, “In 73 years of India’s electoral history, beginning 1951 when the first elections were held, the country has had 32 years of coalition government. In contrast, it has seen 31 years of majoritarian government, including 10 years under Prime Minister Narendra Modi”.
It is thus clear that coalition governments are not alien to India. On the contrary, I would go further and argue that coalition governments at the central level should be seen as a normal and desirable feature of Indian politics, rather than an aberration. Single party dominant governments do not do justice to the diversity and plurality of the country, more so within a federal set-up. Both the federal system and the existence of great diversity that characterises India demand the representation and participation of many different sections in governance at the national level. It is useful to bear in mind that in the initial years after Independence characterised by the domination of the Congress, the party itself was a coalition, or umbrella, comprising various interests and ideologies forged into a political unit during the struggle for independence. In the course of time, different sections moved out of the shade of this umbrella and went their separate ways. This was in a sense inevitable.
The ten years of BJP rule under Narendra Modi from 2014-2024, notwithstanding its nomenclature as an NDA government, saw a serious dilution of the essence of the parliamentary system of government even while sticking to its form. It was a period of centralised governance more akin to a Presidential system than to the Parliamentary one provided by the Constitution. Under the classic concept of the parliamentary system, the Prime Minister is referred to as primus inter pares – first among equals. All cabinet ministers under this system have an equal status but the prime minister holds a special position. While formally equal to other ministers, the prime minister typically wields additional powers and responsibilities. All important decisions, under this system, are to be taken by the cabinet and not by the Prime Minister in his individual capacity. Between 2014 and 2024 the lines of the cabinet system became blurred. Crucial decisions like demonetisation and imposing a lockdown at short notice to deal with the Covid pandemic were taken and communicated to the nation by the Prime Minister alone. The Prime Minister’s Office became the fulcrum of all decision making with the Cabinet becoming largely a rubber stamp. It was the Prime Minister’s imprimatur that held sway. This system found expression in Modi’s speeches in the just concluded election campaign. The Prime Minister always referred to himself in the third person and made a big song and dance about ‘Modi ki Guarantee’. Neither the government nor the party was central to his campaign, but only his persona.
Hopefully with the return of a genuine coalition government at the central level, decision-making will become more consensual and based on discussion, compromise and give and take. The Prime Minister will have to depend on tact and consensus-building for the smooth functioning of the government. These characteristics and behavioural traits have not been in evidence so far. But if the government is to survive these will have to be in evidence in ample measure. Otherwise, the coalition will be short-lived. One cannot expect either Chandrababu Naidu or Nitish Kumar, whose support is vital for the survival of this government, to either play second fiddle or compromise with their vital interests for the sake of the survival of government.
On the other hand, if the TDP or JD(U) prove intractable, Modi and Shah duo may resort to their usual game of splitting these parties by using their considerable war-chest garnered through the ill-fated electoral bonds scheme. The rejuvenated opposition is also likely to keep the government on its toes. The government will no longer be able to ride roughshod over the opposition and treat parliament with disdain. Hopefully, legislative proposals will receive better and detailed scrutiny, instead of being bull-dozed through parliament. It remains to be seen how often the Prime Minister attends parliament, takes part in discussions, or even answers members’ questions – things that he has not been seen doing with any regularity in the past. In any case, Indian politics is in for an interesting phase with the return of normal contestation in parliament and outside.
One last word about why the mandate 2024 represents a return to normal politics. Given the diversity and plurality of the country it is quite natural for regional parties to play a leading role at the level of the states. It is not necessary that states should also be controlled by one or a few national parties. With regional parties leading some states, a coalition at the national level becomes inevitable. This is by no means a sign of weakness. On the contrary, it is a sign of political maturity and strength of the political system. Our experience with some coalition governments in the past also shows that they have not shied away from taking important decisions in the larger interest of the nation and have also ushered in major reforms. Politics in the real sense is not about imposing someone’s ideas and whims, it is about governing through consensus and participation.
(BK Joshi is former Vice Chancellor, Kumaon University and currently Honorary Director, Doon Library & Research Centre.)
