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Mid-Summer Musings on Post-Election Scenarios

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By BK Joshi

[Disclaimer: The author makes no claim to be a psephologist, nor a scholarly political analyst, not even a journalist covering the election with his/her ears to the ground, and least of all an astrologer. He is an ordinary Indian with more than a passing interest in the outcome of the current parliamentary election. He is only imagining, nay fantasising, a few likely scenarios based on what the results may throw up on 4 June. He does have his preferences, but in what follows he has tried to be as objective as possible, keeping aside his likes, dislikes and prejudices.]

A question that concerns everyone with an interest in Indian politics is the picture that emerges after the results of the Lok Sabha election announced on 4 June. I have tried to imagine, or perhaps fantasise, some likely outcomes. These are given below in the form of alternative scenarios. Readers may take their pick, or reject all and form their own view.

Scenario 1: The BJP led NDA not only retains its majority in the Lok Sabha, but also improves on its current strength – 400 paar becomes a reality. Result: Modi emerges stronger with an aura of invincibility. His position as Prime Minister is assured for the next five years, notwithstanding what Kejriwal has claimed about his retirement on reaching 75 years in September. The opposition, especially the Congress party is decimated, and is not in a position to challenge the government either in parliament or outside. The government swiftly moves to implement its programme which is already in preparation. Likely initiatives would include passage of the uniform civil code. It not only does not require a constitutional amendment, but is very much within framework of the constitution, being part of the Directive Principles of State Policy. This may be followed by the implementation of the “one nation, one election” idea based on the recommendations of the Kovind Committee. This would require some amendments to the Constitution, which would not be difficult given the BJP’s comfortable majority in Parliament as well as control of State Governments. Fall of governments in a few states like Jharkhand, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh may be engineered. Depending on the number of seats won by the BJP in the state, pressure would be mounted on the government of West Bengal through the Governor. It would be interesting to watch how Mamata Banerjee reacts: does she remain defiant or does she attempt some sort of reconciliation.

Scenario 2: The NDA retains power, but with a substantially reduced majority. There could be two sub-scenarios here. (i) The BJP on its own has a slim majority so that it cannot afford to ignore its allies. The bargaining power of the allies increases. The BJP is not able to push through its cherished policies like Uniform Civil Code and One Nation, One Election without the support of its allies. Opposition parties may succeed in thwarting any attempt to push these programmes. (ii) The BJP on its own does not have a majority; it is only with the help of its allies that it is able to form the government. The second alternative is likely to throw up interesting possibilities. The bargaining power of the allies would indeed be very high. They are likely to throw their weight around in government formation. It is likely they may insist on someone other than Modi heading the government: Nitin Gadkari, Rajnath Singh? It would be interesting to watch the moves of Amit Shah. Would he remain loyal to Modi or ditch him and try for the top position himself? How would the allies look at Amit Shah given that he is bracketed with Modi as part of the ruling dispensation so far? Even if Modi continues to be the Prime Minister his position would be weak and vulnerable, always at the mercy of the allies unlike the Presidential style that he has created for himself. He is likely to be very uncomfortable in such a situation and may prefer to sit it out and push his trusted lieutenant Amit Shah to head the government. Whatever the likely arrangement such a government would be rather weak. It will not be able to implement some of the cherished policies of Modi like Uniform Civil Code and One Nation, One Election. For all practical purposes these would not only be put on the back burner, but perhaps abandoned altogether like the ill-fated farm legislation.

Scenario 3: Neither the NDA nor the BJP gets a majority, but the INDIA alliance led by the Congress comes up trumps with more seats than NDA. In case the margin of votes between the two alliances is quite slim, BJP may try to cobble a majority for the NDA by wooing members from the smaller parties, perhaps even the Congress, in the rival alliance, by using its substantial war chest and holding out promise of lucrative assignments. This possibility is based on the past record of the BJP in states like Madhya Pradesh, and the fact that it has demonstrated a strong attachment to be in power using all means at its disposal. If, however, the INDIA alliance comes up with the number of seats its leaders are claiming, then it will be difficult for the BJP to break it. The surety of being in power will hold it together, at least in the short run. The real threat to it would arise in the choice of the Prime Minister. It is by no means clear that Congress will head the government with Rahul Gandhi the unanimous choice of the alliance as the Prime Minister. The deciding factor will be the relative distribution of seats among the major alliance partners – Congress, SP, TMC, DMK, RJD, AAP.  Leaders of some parties seem to have Prime Ministerial aspirations. Hence, if the Congress does not do as well as it expects there is likely to be jockeying for the top position. It is difficult to predict who may throw their hat in the ring and who may be finally selected. In case the Congress emerges as clearly the largest party, then the choice of PM is most likely to fall on Rahul Gandhi, who has been most active in taking on Modi in the election campaign. The million dollar question is: Will the alliance be stable and carry along all major parties, a la the UPA between 2004 and 2014? Or will it dissipate within a year or two like the Janata Party experiment? The latter possibility will only be to the advantage of BJP and Modi. They will then most certainly paint the INDIA experiment as a rag-tag group without any staying power and return with a substantial majority, as Indira Gandhi did in 1980.

Finally, a mini-scenario for Uttarakhand. If the Congress manages to win three of the five parliamentary seats, that may signal the countdown for the departure of the Dhami government sooner or later. With wins in two seats the Congress may become a bit more aggressive in its attacks on the government and its performance and gear itself for a serious bid for power in the next state assembly election. If the BJP wins in four or all five seats its hold on power will get consolidated; the Congress may as well forget unseating it in the next state assembly election. However, all these possibilities are subject to what transpires at the national level.

All above scenarios are in the realm of fantasy and imagination – armchair musings. They may or may not turn out as described. That will only be known after 4 June when the results of this extended election process are finally out. Till then happy fantasising!

(BK Joshi is former Vice Chancellor, Kumaon University and currently Honorary Director, Doon Library & Research Centre.)