One of the issues being raised prominently by the opposition in the ongoing election is ‘rising unemployment’. Party leaders in their speeches mention this as an established truth, but almost none provide the specifics on the subject. Bits and pieces are picked up from ‘surveys’ and ‘reports’ by backroom analysts that are then communicated to the campaigners. Easily digestible packages of information are provided at the street level and then repeated ad infinitum.
It is true that a certain class of jobs is no longer available or does not provide a sustainable livelihood. This is mostly in the traditional agricultural sector that is dependent largely on the monsoons and other weather patterns. It was countered from the point of view of increasing production during the early years of the green revolution, mostly based on rapid spread of groundwater extraction. Once productivity goals were achieved and use of groundwater increasingly became unsustainable, it was time for further transformations, such as automation, environmentally sustainable practices, and cultivation of upmarket, high return products. The unwillingness of farmers involved in subsidy-based agriculture to upgrade has resulted in decreasing returns. The government is expected to offset these losses by providing unsustainable subsidies. This is no longer possible if investments are to be made in the emerging sectors.
On the other hand, in states like Bihar, UP, etc., the lack of even this initial economic impetus forced farmers to migrate to other parts of the country. In the initial stages of this process, entry level jobs were available in industry and services, but their growth was seriously hampered by restrictive socialist practices. When the economy did eventually open up, manufacturing was already entering the automation era. Jobs today require greater skills and are mostly in the services sector. As such, it is not so much unemployment that is the worry, but unemployability.
Sadly, those who talk of addressing unemployment promise to revert to the subsidy era and on a much larger scale. This will not only make people more unemployable, but also cause serious fiscal shocks to the economy. It is necessary instead to watch how the economy is shaping up on the back of what has already been done and then building on it. It will be painful and expensive in the short term, but much more beneficial in the longer term. The financial hole created by outdated economics will very likely undo even that which has been achieved in many new-age sectors. Has the experience of the last ten years strengthened the people’s will to move forward, or is the mirage on offer going to lead them into the desert?
