Buoyed by its victories in Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh, the Congress projected the latest round of assembly elections as the ‘semi-final’ before the General Elections. It did so in the expectation that it would do well, giving it pole position in the INDI Alliance, thereby making Rahul Gandhi the prime ministerial candidate of the opposition. However, it made some serious mistakes in its campaign and, instead of sweeping Rajasthan, MP, Chhattisgarh and Telangana, it has had to console itself with a victory against the regional BRS. Otherwise, it has been trounced soundly by the BJP. So, instead of crediting victories to Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Vadra, the effort will now be to disassociate them from the results and save as much face as possible.
So, it is advantage BJP, which approached the elections in a professional manner, having learned its lessons from the Karnataka and HP defeats. It lost those elections because of misreading local factors and not having strong regional leaders. This was corrected by fielding several Members of Parliament, conciliating leaders who felt sidelined, and getting PM Modi and other bigwigs to campaign in critically important constituencies.
Above all, the voters displayed extraordinary maturity while making their choice. Political analysts were confident that all the ‘guarantees and freebies’ offered by the Congress would make a considerable impact. The voters saw through that, and their choice indicates it is the Modi Government’s welfare schemes that have had the real impact on their living conditions.
Even more than that, however, was the opportunistic jump made by Rahul Gandhi on the caste census band wagon. It backfired big time and the mandate shows there is little support for such politics in the Hindi Heartland. Also, the failure to condemn the vituperative comments made by Congress allies about ‘Sanatan Dharma’ will have punctured the ‘soft Hindutva’ adopted by Rahul Gandhi with his temple visits.
If the Congress wishes to recover from this setback, it must absolutely consider jettisoning leaders that are well past their political expiry date. It made a serious mistake by having the likes of highly discredited Kamal Nath and Digvijay Singh as its prominent faces in the MP campaign. In fact, they will have added an extra twenty seats to what the BJP would otherwise have won. There are such leaders also at the national level that truly put off the voters, whatever clout they command within the party. A good consequence of the results will be greater humility when negotiating with alliance partners at the time of General Elections.
With all this, Modi seems well on track for a third term.
