President Donald Trump seems to have realised that there is little more his country’s war machine can achieve in the ongoing ‘Operation Epic Fury’. Hence, he has tentatively suggested that the US will withdraw within two weeks whether the Strait of Hormuz is opened or not. All his claims on talks have been officially denied by Iran, whose Foreign Minister has said that messages have been received but the 15 demands being made are unacceptable.
Trump’s decision comes in the wake of NATO and other allies refusing to take part in the war. In fact, some countries have even denied the US Armed Forces support such as use of military bases and even air space. At the same time, the opposition of the general public to the war in the US itself has risen tremendously, as has been witnessed in the widespread ‘No Kings’ protests. Many in Trump’s Republican Party are waking up to the possible electoral losses that may come if matters continue in the present direction.
Trump’s claimed objective for the war at the present is the total annihilation of Iran’s nuclear capability. It has been pointed out that, while installations can be destroyed, the technical knowhow will remain with Iran’s scientists. Some time or other, the programme will be renewed. As such, the maximum that could have been achieved has been done. It can be left to Israel to continue its campaign against Iran and its proxies in other ways.
Trump has also acknowledged that it is beyond his power to ‘open up’ the Strait of Hormuz. He will leave behind a mess that will have to be sorted out by the Gulf and other regional countries. With the vulnerability to Iranian attacks exposed, their booming economies are now under serious threat. Iran is in a position to dictate terms regarding shipping in the Strait, which will have a long term impact.
It is no wonder that the UAE, Saudi Arabia, etc., are in favour of the war’s continuation till such time the threat is removed. At the same time, attempts are underway to form an alliance that will also include Turkiye and Pakistan, with hopefully Chinese support to manage the post-US situation. What emerges from that will become known as the situation develops further. This is because, till such time the US does not withdraw, there will be no certainties. As for India, its understanding with Iran will hopefully ensure that the oil tanker ships keep coming through, even as it diversifies its sources.
