Indo-US relations are, without a doubt, at a nadir in the present. From the high of ‘Howdy Modi’ to being the target of tariffs, pressured to stop buying oil from the Russians, described as a ‘hellhole country’ and a ‘dead economy’, matters have gone from bad to worse. India has exhibited considerable restraint and worked on negotiating a trade deal that would put relations beyond the eccentricities of any one individual. This is because, in the larger context, it cannot be ignored, being not just a major economy and growing market, but also a strategic balancing factor in global power equations.
This includes the Quad, which has far reaching security implications for the nations concerned. Which is why US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is on a visit to India. This has opened up, at the same time, the opportunity for the US and India to take a relook at the present state of bilateral relations. This is also in the background of Donald Trump’s disastrous war with Iran, which has exposed the flaws in his worldview. No nation is happy with the damage he has caused to the world economy. He has been abandoned by his NATO allies, is seeing a dip in popularity at home, and was able to achieve nothing when he made a much-touted visit to China. As such, he desperately needs to make some diplomatic gains.
Taking the opportunity, India has made clear its long term priorities before Rubio, whose attention span is certainly better than that of his boss. (How much influence he has remains to be seen.) Foreign Minister Jaishankar has listed the five areas on which work needs to be done, which essentially focus on restoration of world order. “Dialogue and diplomacy to address conflicts; safe and unimpeded maritime commerce; scrupulous respect for international law; non-weaponisation of market shares and resources; trusted partnerships and resilient supply chains to de-risk the global economy” have been underlined as the requirements for any progress in the bilateral relationship. If not Trump, at least his cohort will have already realised this reality.
In the interactions Rubio has had with Prime Minister Modi and EAM Jaishankar, he has accepted the importance of the India-US relationship, focusing on their being democracies and ‘strategic’ partners. His emphasis on ensuring there is no capture of critical minerals or supply chains expresses the concerns of both countries. What emerges at the Quad meeting to be held on 26 May and the message he takes back will hold importance only if it influences future policies and actions of the US.
