The US attack on Iran was ill-conceived. Perhaps, the successful abduction of the Venezuelan President encouraged Donald Trump to think that he could achieve something even more spectacular against Iran. He was obviously encouraged to do so by Israeli PM Netanyahu, as Iran’s proxies have for long carried out a sustained campaign against the Jewish nation. Did the US military have a say regarding what was planned? Was it given a clear directive on what was to be done and did it communicate to the Supreme Commander its ability to achieve the goal? These are serious questions that will need to be answered as hostilities resume in West Asia after failed peace negotiations and a collapsed ceasefire.
The kind of demands being made by the US can only be conceded by Iran if it is totally defeated militarily. It is obvious that all the missile and drone attacks are not enough. It was hoped that the Iranian people would rise up against the cleric-led regime but, instead, the nation rallied unitedly against the attackers. The next step required US boots on the ground, but it is obvious that it does not have the will to do so anymore after the repeated defeats in the past – from Vietnam to Afghanistan.
Unfortunately, the Strait of Hormuz has become collateral damage, leading to serious complications for maritime commerce. India has unnecessarily had its oil supply disrupted, as have other countries in the region. So, like it or not, the conflict has become everybody’s problem. All the efforts to mediate have failed, largely because Iran seems impelled to take advantage of what it believes has been its victory.
Has it been wise for Iran not to accept a deal in the present circumstances? Is it sure that the US cannot or will not escalate the conflict, inflicting damage that could set back Iran’s progress by decades? If, as it has claimed repeatedly in the past, it has no designs to make nuclear weapons, why cannot it come to an understanding on this issue? Is the US asking for even a halt to peaceful use of nuclear energy? Can this not be intelligently discussed with the help of interlocutors? Possibly, Pakistan and Qatar lack the capacity to negotiate at this level, but there are other nations that could – even India.
In the meanwhile, Indians may have to face some more oil supply problems. Hopefully, the measures taken by the government to diversify supply have achieved their objective and not too much damage will be done to the economy.
