After ten years in power, it would be reasonable to expect a strong element of anti-incumbency against the BJP in Haryana. Even so, it is projected to be a tough fight, as there is a multiplicity of factors in play. As usual, the BJP anticipated the course of play well in advance and introduced changes in its power structure, including bringing in a new chief minister. Incumbent MLAs that have not performed up to the mark have been replaced for the coming election on 5 October and the resulting internal dissent has been considerably constrained. However, going by the poorer than expected outcome of the Lok Sabha contest in the state, the party is in defensive mode.
On the other hand, for the same reasons, the main opposition, the Congress, is in an upbeat mood. Even before the voting, there are ongoing tussles in the leadership for the top position. This has impacted the campaign adversely, but the main contender, Bhupinder Singh Hooda, remains primarily in the fray. There have been reports of the other senior leaders, particularly Kumari Selja, being unhappy with this positioning of Hooda. It has required intervention from the likes of Rahul Gandhi to paper over the differences, but the reality will become known after the results are out.
Usually, if there is anything like a wave, the differences within a party are overcome, but if the carefully crafted caste combinations of the BJP against the Jat and Muslim votebanks work out, the going can prove to be difficult. In many ways, it is the BJP’s toughest challenge, and the result will show if it has been able to counter the split in the Hindu vote that the caste divisions of the INDI Alliance have brought about. There are, of course, issues such as the opposition to the farm laws, the Agniveer scheme, ‘unemployment’, the wrestlers’ protests, etc., but these are more or less included in the caste constituency. The BJP’s hope will be in the urban areas, as well as the constituencies that have non-Jat majorities. Being a small state, the results would not matter so much to the BJP, except for the fact that it is proximate to the national capital. The BJP cannot also expect the voters to be as smart as those of Delhi, who vote for freebies at the assembly level, and on national issues at the Lok Sabha level. There is no doubt, however, that a Congress victory would give a huge boost to the party’s leadership, which has placed all its bets on the one horse.
