There is a lack of clarity on what the people’s concerns are as the campaign progresses for the Delhi Assembly election. At the present it seems as though the political parties believe the winner would be the one who offers the most generous giveaways. As the Aam Aadmi Party is in power, it is Brand Kejriwal that is most in focus, particularly as there is a hefty record of having instituted a number of ‘people-friendly’ schemes. Those promised are also quite substantial. BJP, the main opposition, has its usual Brand Modi but there is a question mark about who the candidate is for the chief minister’s post. As such, the result may be considered a slam dunk for AAP.
Matters, however, are not so simple anymore. Just as popularity matters in politics, unpopularity also plays a significant role. Once the people decide they will vote for anybody except the one they have come to dislike, the field opens up for others. Indications are that, while Kejriwal remains the hero for AAP’s hardcore supporters, his unpopularity has considerably increased. In other words, those who would earlier have taken a soft line on his leadership are now much alienated.
Under the circumstances, the challenge for the two major opposition parties – BJP and Congress – is to harvest these votes. In that sense, the contest is between these two. It is here that the selection of candidates will greatly matter. There will be high-profile contests that may be easy to predict, such as in Kejriwal and CM Atishi’s constituencies but, otherwise, it may prove a free for all.
Will this situation lead to a divide in the anti-BJP votebank? If it tilts towards Congress, it will benefit the BJP. The Muslim vote, for instance, has adopted a strategy of not getting divided and sticking with the force more likely to win against BJP. With other voters undecided, the Congress has been the loser as a result. However, the Muslims’ impact is only on a limited number of seats. If those alienated turn away and choose non-AAP candidates, there may be a change in fortunes. All depends upon how much the shenanigans of Arvind Kejriwal and his cohorts have impacted the people. The increased unpopularity may prove the tipping point. That is the factor around which the BJP and Congress must focus their campaign.
