The political scenario in Bihar is becoming more about who will constitute the opposition after the coming elections. This is because the Mahagathbandhan, which was supposed to take on the Nitish Government in the state, has turned out to be anything but a ‘united front’. As such, the chances of its prevailing over a much more consolidated NDA are greatly diminished. The latest to chart its own course is the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, which was denied the number of seats it wanted. Now, it is even threatening to reconsider its tie-up with the RJD in Jharkhand, where it is the largest party in the ruling coalition.
Similarly, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) is also contesting in a larger number of seats than before – mostly Muslim dominated constituencies that the opposition front would have been considering its strongholds. Even the Congress, which is hoping to re-establish itself as a major force in the state, is facing serious discontent within its own ranks regarding seat distribution. In fact, the overall seat distribution is being described as an ‘alliance of families’, rather than of political forces. The RJD is a prime example of this phenomenon.
Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party is offering an alternative to this form of Bihar politics. In a scenario where Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s declining ‘mental and physical condition’ is being considered the primary obstacle to his return to power, the people might be attracted to the more ‘dynamic’ alternative. As such, while divisions within the ‘grand alliance’ will likely damage its chances, Kishor will possibly draw more votes from the NDA pool.
The larger question before the voters is whether they would like a coalition in power, which will result from the presently divisive politics, or a clear mandate for the incumbent NDA. Will the possibility of an alliance defeat lead Muslims to go with the AIMIM? This is important because Bihar is at a major crossroads regarding the model of development. Will smaller caste and community groups prefer to negotiate by themselves with the NDA, post-election, or will the traditional social justice narrative be given priority?
It is also a fact that a decisive mandate for the NDA, which implies a strong performance by the BJP, will sooner than later lead to Nitish Kumar’s ouster from the CM’s chair. This scenario needs to be anticipated, and arrangements made for a willing departure. Perhaps, a larger political role for his son, Nishant Kumar may be found acceptable.
