Words of warning are emanating from several quarters in the US about the negative consequences of continuing to alienate India through the ‘tariff war’. Not only is this leading to India further strengthening its ties with Russia, it may over time lead to a rapprochement with China. If that happens, it would lead to formation of a powerful economic bloc that would overwhelm the economies of the US and Europe, together. Is that US President Trump’s strategic objective?
The politicians and experts who have expressed concern in the US have also pointed out that similar benefits would accrue to their country if, instead, India would become an ally of the US. Going by India’s strategic and economic trajectory, it is set to be a much larger market in the future, which the US could benefit from if it plays its cards right. It must not be forgotten that, being functional democracies, there is a natural affinity between the two countries. However, historically, the internal politics of the US has played a role over the years of ensuring that this natural advantage has been significantly wasted. Much of this has to do with the superiority mindset that has emerged in recent decades and has taken on a virulent form at present. While the Democratic Party has been more inclined towards India, it failed during its tenures to advance the relationship and adopted mostly a patronising approach. The Republicans are more internally focused, and taken up with the immigration issue to the extent that global trends are being badly misread.
It is good of course that a better understanding of the situation is emerging even among the Republicans. India has exercised great restraint despite the tariffs and President Donald Trump’s claims regarding the India-Pakistan faceoff post the Pahalgam incident. It is no surprise that both Trump and PM Modi have avoided any direct meets of late. (It has been reported that a telephonic conversation between the two took place on Thursday, and that is a good thing.) Negotiations are ongoing regarding resolution of the tariff issue and there are signs of progress. While the diminished access to US markets will certainly be impacting India’s economic growth, alternatives are already evolving and may, eventually, lead to a greater push towards other global markets. This will not only reduce dependence on the US, but actually compel India’s industries to diversify and innovate. All the same, however, should the negotiations fail to deliver a favourable result for both countries, it will be a setback for the institution of democracy, which will have a negative global impact.
