By Pramod Kapoor
The recent firing by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on two Indian-flagged cargo tankers, Sanmar Herald and Jag Arnav, in the Strait of Hormuz on 18 April is deeply concerning. This occurred despite prior permission for transit through a conflict-sensitive route. Such an act demands that India shed its hesitancy and take a clearer, firmer stand.
This incident raises troubling possibilities. It could be a calculated signal from Tehran expressing dissatisfaction with India’s diplomatic posture, or it may indicate a deeper problem—namely, the absence of effective political control, with power concentrated in the hands of a radicalised IRGC. Either scenario carries serious implications for regional stability and India’s strategic interests.
At the outset, it must be stated that this war was uncalled for. The joint actions of the United States and Israel appear to have underestimated Iran’s resolve and capacity. Notably, the role of Donald Trump in shaping an aggressive, often unilateral approach to Iran—particularly through withdrawal from diplomatic agreements and reliance on coercive tactics—has contributed to the escalation we witness today. Strategic miscalculations at the highest levels have helped bring the region to this precarious point.
However, now that the conflict has intensified, India cannot afford ambiguity. It would be prudent for India to align with a broader coalition comprising the United States, Israel, and key Gulf nations such as Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, and Qatar. While many of these states may appear as passive stakeholders, their geopolitical realities—particularly the presence of American military bases—bind them to the unfolding situation.
Iran’s actions in effectively disrupting maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz amount to what can reasonably be termed “economic coercion”. if not outright economic warfare. This vital chokepoint is central to global energy flows, and its disruption has ripple effects across economies worldwide, disproportionately impacting the most vulnerable populations. The losses in global markets have already reached staggering levels, with Indian investors alone estimated to have incurred losses exceeding $550 billion (approximately Rs 51 lakh crore).
The international community must therefore support efforts to ensure the free passage of trade through this critical waterway. Failure to do so risks setting a dangerous precedent—today the Strait of Hormuz, tomorrow perhaps the Bab-el-Mandeb or even the Strait of Malacca.
Why not side with Iran? The current regime in Iran raises serious concerns. Its governance has been widely criticised for repression and curtailment of civil liberties. Reports of harsh crackdowns on dissent, including protests over social restrictions such as mandatory dress codes, have drawn global attention. Moreover, Iran’s role in supporting armed non-state actors such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis contributes to ongoing instability in the region.
The events of 7 October 2023, when Hamas launched a deadly attack on southern Israel, killing over a thousand people and taking hostages, marked a grim chapter. The devastating aftermath in Gaza has been equally tragic, underscoring the immense human cost of this prolonged conflict.
India must also weigh its national interests pragmatically. Nearly 9 million Indians live and work in Gulf countries, contributing significantly to the Indian economy through remittances. In contrast, India’s diaspora in Iran is negligible. These realities cannot be ignored in strategic decision-making.
Additionally, India’s relationship with Israel holds longstanding importance. Since the establishment of full diplomatic ties in 1992, Israel has been a key defence partner, supplying advanced systems such as the Barak-8 air defence system, Phalcon AWACS, and Heron drones, among others. This partnership has proven valuable in strengthening India’s defence capabilities.
While Iran may describe India as a friendly nation, recent actions tell a more complex story. Reports that fewer Indian vessels have been permitted transit compared to those from other countries, along with the recent targeting of an India-bound cargo ship, raise legitimate concerns about the consistency of that friendship.
In conclusion, India must adopt a balanced yet firm approach—guided by strategic interests, economic security, and regional stability. Neutrality in such circumstances may no longer be a viable option.
