The signing of the ‘Memorandum of Understanding’ between the US and Iran has brought some sense of relief to the rest of the world. It is mostly an acknowledgement by the US that is has failed in whatever it was hoping to achieve. Iran, on the other hand, despite the losses it suffered in terms of human lives and infrastructure, has come out on top, gaining almost total control over the Strait of Hormuz. It also represents a serious setback for the Gulf States in security terms, as well as possibly adverse economic implications.
What is obvious now is that the US is no longer capable of enforcing rules of global trade, human rights and security – its weaknesses have been exposed. It is known that President Donald Trump was persuaded to attack Iran by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the bid to end Iran’s ability to develop a nuclear weapon. Whatever the contents of the final deal will be, Iran may continue with this objective. With the US weakness exposed, it will be left to Israel to attempt the task alone.
The conflict has also left the Gulf States greatly weakened. Their dependence on US military presence to prevent Iran’s strategic intentions has proven hollow. The impact on their economies will also be severe, and the attempt to shift from mere oil exports to becoming financial centres may prove unviable in the long run. Pakistan’s role in brokering the agreement will raise its profile internationally and it is hoped that it will acquire some maturity in its politics and geopolitical outlook in the future.
As experts have pointed out, the recovery from the oil supply shock will take time. India, although it managed to keep oil and gas supply going for its citizens, suffered considerable financial loss. It will take some time and effort to recover. As such, there should be no expectations among the people of a reduction in prices in the short term. Happily, it has good relations with Iran and the Gulf nations, which will help in the normalisation process.
Hopefully, Iran will also have learned the necessary lessons. It may have come out on top at the present, but the American Deep State will prepare to hit back. As such, the effort should be to mainstream with the present-day world in diplomatic, economic and social terms. It would be wise to set aside its nuclear ambitions, as it has become obvious it does not need such weapons to fight the good fight.
