US President Donald Trump’s most recent claim is that Iran has been rendered incapable of every having a nuclear weapon. Whatever the truth of that assertion, there is need to examine the existing global nuclear order.
Global nuclear security and deterrence doctrines form the structural framework preventing the use of nuclear weapons while managing international stability. Originally forged during the Cold War, these concepts dictate how state actors manage, secure, and deploy their nuclear arsenals to prevent catastrophic conflict.
At its core, nuclear deterrence is a psychological strategy aimed at preventing aggression by convincing a potential adversary that the costs of an attack will drastically outweigh any benefits. This is governed by three primary pillars, often called the Three Cs.
Capability: Maintaining the physical military assets, delivery systems, and a resilient nuclear triad (land, air, and sea). Credibility: Ensuring adversaries believe a state possesses the absolute willingness to execute a retaliatory strike if its predefined “red lines” are crossed. Communication: Clearly articulating thresholds to avoid fatal strategic miscalculations. Relations between the two ‘outlier’ nuclear powers India and Pakistan are a best present day example of this principle.
This dynamic underpins Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), a state of equilibrium where a first-strike capability is neutralised because the targeted nation retains a survivable second-strike capability to completely annihilate the attacker. While some nations adopt defensive No First Use (NFU) policies paired with Credible Minimum Deterrence, others rely on extended deterrence—extending their nuclear umbrella to protect non-nuclear allies.
Because deterrence relies entirely on the assumption that global leaders are rational actors who calculate risk logically, global security frameworks are essential to mitigate the extreme danger of accidental launches, unauthorised usage, or theft by rogue non-state actors.
This stability is maintained through a combination of international treaties, physical safeguards, and diplomatic measures. One approach is non-proliferation: The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) acts as the primary global regime preventing the spread of nuclear weapons capability. Also, strategic verification: Bilateral agreements, such as historical arms control treaties, limit deployed warheads and mandate rigorous on-site inspections. There are also physical safeguards: implementing cyber defences, tracking systems, and secure storage protocols protects weapons-grade material from illicit trafficking.
Ultimately, global nuclear doctrine acts as a volatile paradox. It positions tools of ultimate destruction as the essential instruments for maintaining a tense, fragile global peace. It is also clear that such an arrangement cannot exist in perpetuity. Humanity has to evolve to a level where peace is built on more reliable structures. Perhaps, AI will prove an important tool in achieving this goal in the future.
