As parties prepare for the coming assembly polls in five states, the task of releasing candidates’ names is fraught not only with the usual combinations of caste and creed, but also rising in-party feuds. Dropping incumbents from the ticket and nominating their rivals in various constituencies is leading to the usual party hopping by those sidelined. Then there is the usual resentment among the cadre of the party that has inducted and nominated a former opponent.
Such is Indian politics and it requires enormous skill among the top brass to arrive at a balance. The scene gets even more complicated when it is a multi-party fray, with political ideologies playing against each other and no guarantee how personal loyalties will play out. In the present case, considerably jaded regional satraps are attempting to revive their fortunes, unsure about how the youth, particularly, are going to vote. The results, if properly analysed, will also give an idea of how the later Lok Sabha elections will shape up.
Potential swing voters are also influenced by analyses and opinion polls to a significant extent, as predictions can make them change their choices. With the expansion of social media, also, it remains a factor still not fully understood. True or false, such ‘information’ will play a big role. Are the various parties up to date in this regard, particularly those lacking a cadre base at the grassroots and depending on the personal followings of local leaders? Also, apart from the freebies that have become mandatory in manifestos, are there real issues being addressed that will actually make a difference to the economy and development? The Congress victory in Karnataka, for instance, has drawn greater attention to this element, as the ‘guarantees’ are proving to be prohibitively expensive. Is the electorate taking note of this?
These more immediate concerns of every party are also impacting on the INDI Alliance. It is becoming clear to the regional parties that the ‘victory’ projected against PM Modi in the Lok Sabha contest requires them to make the bigger sacrifice. They will be required to confine themselves to their traditional areas of influence and not seek space elsewhere. The Samajwadi Party being denied even six seats in MP has very starkly underlined this reality, naturally infuriating Akhilesh Yadav. This scenario is being played out everywhere – the Congress is looking to revive its fortunes at everybody else’s cost. Anybody other than Rahul Gandhi hoping to become PM can forget about it right now.
