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Engaging Pakistan

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External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar will be in Pakistan on 15 October for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meet. It has already been made clear that this visit does not in any way indicate a thawing in relations between India and Pakistan. Even so, knowing Pakistan, attempts will be made to present the visit as a ‘softening’ in India’s position. It will be very likely claimed that this is the result of Pakistan’s successful diplomacy.

It must be noted that the present freeze in Indo-Pak relations has been most successful in maintaining a semblance of ‘normalcy’, particularly along the borders. Every time in the past that India invested diplomatically in improving relations, it was consistently betrayed through terrorist attacks and promotion of separatism in J&K. This is despite India having held all the cards – economically, militarily and strategically. However, after the conclusion was arrived at that cultivating relations with Pakistan is a loser’s bargain, the strategy has been to ignore its very existence. This has proven very effective, in fact contributed to bringing Pakistan’s economy on its knees and depriving it of any card it could play. Pakistan’s failure to make any impact following Article 370’s abrogation, either diplomatically on the global platform, or by provoking disturbances in J&K, has shown how it was given unnecessary importance in the past.

Jaishankar’s will be the first visit by an Indian Foreign Minister to Pakistan in nine years. This indicates the state of affairs between the two countries. The role played by the Pak military and China in keeping the fires stoked is a reason why there has been no change in circumstances that could encourage some kind of a rapprochement between the two countries more suited to the Twenty-First Century. It has to be said, however, that civil society in Pakistan has become more aware of the undeniable and unerasable civilisational link between India and Pakistan. The negative response to the fundamentalist preacher, Zakir Naik, has underlined this awareness.

As such, while Jaishankar should avoid any ‘bilateral’ type interaction with the establishment, it would not hurt if he engages with the ordinary folk, as also the media. It would be interesting to see how that shapes up. It is still not time to change India’s policy at the formal level, but developing goodwill among the people will certainly pay dividends in the long run.