Does anybody know what the public mandate will be in Jharkhand? And why it will have taken that particular shape? Will it just be about who has promised more giveaways, or will more substantial choices have been made? All parties are making claims about ideological, economic and identity policies directed at making people’s lives better, but will the people take their decisions on that basis? How realistic will be their expectations? The same goes for Maharashtra, where there is an even greater lack of clarity about what the mandate will come to mean.
Similar confusion existed in the US before the presidential election, but the mandate eventually proved to be quite decisive. Now, the world is seeing the dominant political force lay down policy parameters in accordance with its ideology. Can the same be said about what will happen in Jharkhand and Maharashtra? Can the claims being made by politicians be actually implemented on the ground, or is the likelihood greater of these being mere attempts to fool the people?
How many of the present-day politicians can say that they have successfully implemented positive programmes based on their pre-election manifestos? Or has it been just about acquiring personal power to run the system just as it is – shaped to serve their interests rather than the people’s? No individual or group gives up the inherent power it exercises for the greater good unless compelled to do so. Do people have this in mind before casting their vote, or are most deceived by the propaganda spewed out regularly on various platforms, whose number has only increased?
Analysts should study the ongoing contests from this point of view by identifying the forces at play and the likely response of the people to them. These different scenarios should be worked out, as also their consequences. The results of the elections should then be interpreted in that perspective. Nationalism, regionalism, casteism, tribalism, economic factors, individual charisma, past records should all be factored in and the direction these will take explained. The contrast between expectations and the reality should become clear as a means to educate the voter on deciding wisely. The bypolls will also have a message to communicate, even if on the local plane. It must not be forgotten that the butterfly effect can leave an impact on much larger scenarios. Every voter counts and better if the voter is well informed.
