By Dr DP Juyal
The way the Ukraine–Russia War has been dragging on since February 2022, an end to it does not appear possible if the present push-pull policy of pro-Ukraine forces continues. No one endorses the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But Ukraine’s adamancy to join NATO was also a foolish approach. It was a direct threat to Russian security if Ukraine was admitted to NATO, a big alliance of all European countries and America, a formidable group of countries set up to counter the then Soviet Union. Today, Ukraine is destroyed and a big chunk of territory is occupied due to unabated onslaught by Russia. The continuous supply of most modern weapons, missiles, tanks, latest fighter aircraft including F-16s, drones, rockets, air defence systems, etc., to Ukraine has been responsible for escalating the war, which does not appear to end soon in the near future. They think that this is the only strategy by which Russia can be inflicted a big loss and forced to surrender. But, by then, Ukraine would have been completely ruined. Russia is alone fighting the war. If suitable measures are not taken immediately, the war may prolong even up to 10 years.
The west has not learnt any lesson from World War I and World War II, which took the lives of more than ten million people, a big blot on humanity. So, war is not a solution. Indian Prime Minister Modi, on the sidelines of the SCO meeting in September 2022 at Samarkand, talked to Putin, emphasising, “This age is not of war. It is through democracy, dialogue and diplomacy that the dispute can be resolved.” This message of Modi went viral throughout the world. To end the Ukraine–Russia war, this doctrine could prove a milestone.
Recently, former President of France, Nicolas Sarkozy suggested Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could be ended with new referendums in occupied territories. “The Ukrainians will want to re-conquer what has been unjustly taken from them. But if they can’t manage it completely, the choice will be between a frozen conflict, or taking the high road out with referendums, overseen by the international community.” Speaking about the Crimean Peninsula, the former French leader said, “Any return to the way things were before is an illusion. An incontestable referendum will be needed to solidify the current state of
affairs.”
Sarkozy insisted that Russian leader Vladimir Putin was not irrational and could be reached with the right kind of diplomacy. Russia is Europe’s neighbour and will remain so. Diplomacy, discussion and talks remain the only way to find an acceptable solution. Nothing is possible without compromise.” He further said Ukraine should remain neutral and has no place in the EU or NATO.” Coincidently, the Sarkozy formula gave the same narrative as proposed by Modi to Putin.
After World War II, the UNO was founded in 1945 to establish world order and peace. Unfortunately, the Security Council controlled by the five permanent members, used it for their personal interests and this body did not make any headway on reforms and maintenance of peace in the divided world. It is an irony that, even after 78 years of its existence with the changed times, no expansion of Security Council has been done. As a result, the UNO has become a silent spectator to the war in Ukraine, and is reduced to being a toothless organisation.
In a nutshell, the Ukraine-Russia war can be ended as per the following steps.
- Immediate ceasefire should be declared by, both, Ukraine and Russia.
- America and EU countries subsequently must cease supplying arms and weapons to Ukraine.
- Russia has to vacate all the occupied territories of Ukraine and status-quo maintained in Crimea, i.e., it still remains an integral part of Russia.
- Ukraine will refrain from joining NATO and become a neutral country.
- Sovereignty and integrity of Ukraine to be guaranteed by, both, NATO and Russia.
- America and EU countries should provide fair amount of aid to Ukraine to rebuild and reconstruct the nation. Billions of dollars will be required for this.
- America and EU have to lift all sanctions imposed on Russia.
- The International Criminal Court must withdraw or cancel the arrest warrant against Putin.
- America and EU should take the initiative for trust and confidence building measures with Russia to end future confrontation and reemergence of the Cold War.
India is going to hold the G-20 Summit on 9-10 September, 2023, under its Presidency. Efforts and consensus should be arrived at on the above lines to end Ukraine-Russia War so as to restore food grain supply chain, crude oil and gas supply to Europe and other nations whose economy has been adversely affected by the war. PM Modi can play a leading role in this summit to arrive at a consensus. Ending the Ukraine-Russia war has become imperative to prevent World War III, for the cause of world peace and saving humanity on this earth.
(The author is former Jawaharlal Nehru Fellow and Visiting Research Fellow, University of Southampton (UK), former Defence Scientist and Director, IRDE (DRDO), Dehradun, and former Member, Uttarakhand Public Service Commission.)
