Dates for the J&K and Haryana Assembly elections have been announced by the Election Commission, with results to be announced on 4 October. Elections in J&K will be held in three phases, while those in Haryana will coincide with the last phase in J&K.
While this is a laudable step towards restoration of state level democracy in J&K, it is only the beginning. Everybody knows the challenges that exist in that Union Territory posed by cross-border terrorists and their not inconsiderable sympathisers in the valley. As has already been experienced, attacks on the security forces and civilians have been ratcheted up. This is to send the message that everything possible would be done to disrupt the electoral process. The objective is to keep the turnout at a low enough to claim on international fora that the election results did not represent the opinion of the public.
There is no doubt that the healthy turnout for the Lok Sabha elections came as shock for the ISI and other elements of the Pakistani establishment. They do not want a repeat during the contest for the Assembly. As such, it will be a tough road ahead for the Election Commission and the security forces to ensure a safe environment, particularly in the more remote areas.
Although the Chief Election Commissioner claimed that the election period had been shortened as desired by the people after the exhausting Lok Sabha contest, three phases will be necessary considering the overall circumstances. The focus will be on ensuring the more challenging constituencies have the necessary deployment of security forces so that, both, the voters as well as the polling staff feel completely safe.
It will be interesting to see how much of a local impact the long period of Lt Governor’s rule has had on the politics of J&K. Have relative peace and significant development influenced the populace in a positive way? Or, will local grievances have the kind of effect that caste and community issues had in some parts of the country during the Lok Sabha elections? With the absence from power of dynastic parties like the National Conference and the PDP for almost ten years, a number of other outfits have emerged, representing different sections of opinion. Some have a pragmatic approach to relations with the Centre, while others have chosen a more radical stance. If there is a decent enough turnout in the coming election, it will more accurately reflect the mood of the people. The region can then move on to, hopefully, regaining its status as a full-fledged state.
