By Anil Raturi
The rising oil and gas prices have started to burn a hole in the purses of the common person.
The cause of this hardship is the ongoing Israel-US War against Iran. It has thrown up many questions before the citizens of this world.
What are the objectives of this war?
It is argued that Iran was working on a nuclear weapons programme, which if successful, could become a menace for the world at large– more so for Jewish Israel, as well as for the Sunni States of Arabia (Iran being predominantly Shia).
For many years now, the media has been regularly reporting about the US efforts to bring Iran to the negotiating table in order to convince it to drop its nuclear weapons programme.
In this regard, the Obama Administration had achieved some limited success too.
Recently, the US had again begun pursuing the matter diplomatically.
However, of late, the US and Israeli stance on the subject has been that the Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei was an intractable person to negotiate with. Therefore, unless there was a regime change in Iran the problem couldn’t be solved.
Hence, they argued that it was necessary to attack Iran to prevent it from becoming a nuclear power.
The underlying presumption was that within Iran there was a widespread unpopular sentiment against the country’s oppressive and fanatically religious regime.
This led to their belief that, if the top leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was somehow removed from the scene, it would precipitate a revolt by the people of Iran against the present political dispensation, paving the way for the installation of a more “convenient ” regime in Iran.
Perhaps, it is this backdrop along with specific intelligence inputs regarding Ali Khamenei’s location, which provoked Israel-US to launch their operation “Epic Fury” against Iran which led to Ali Khamenei’s assassination.
It appears the US and Israelis believed that a quick pinpointed operation to remove Ali Khamenei could accomplish their objectives and the war could end in just a few days. They presumed that with its top leader gone, a demoralised Iran would not be able to challenge the combined might of USA and Israel.
It was also probably their assessment that the Gulf countries would be vulnerable to Iranian missiles and drones for only a few days, which would not be very unmanageable with their radars and interceptors in place.
However, Iran’s response to the attack seems to have taken everyone by surprise.
There is no doubt that in the recent past, because of his oppressive ways, Ali Khamenei had certainly become unpopular in a section of Iranian society.
However, from the US and Israeli standpoint, Ali Khamenei’s assassination appears to have become counterproductive for them for the following reasons.
First, the assassination doesn’t seem to have precipitated the anticipated revolt of Iranian people against the incumbent regime.
On the contrary, it seems to have helped in expiating Ali Khamenei’s past sins and making him a martyr in Iran.
Secondly, the well-entrenched Iranian regime has successfully foisted an even more hawkish leader to the top, while institutionalising a hydra headed leadership, fighting which will be even more challenging. This has enabled Iran to prolong the war of attrition.
Thirdly, with its substantial arsenal of missiles, drones and experience of asymmetrical warfare, Iran has been successful in significantly stressing the US and Israeli radars and intercepting systems.
This has left the oil producing Gulf States (who are dependent on US for their security) exposed and vulnerable, leading to a disruption of oil production in these countries, creating a global scarcity of oil.
Fourthly, in order to build global pressure against USA and Israel, Iran as matter of strategy, is trying to increase the cost of this war for all nations of the world. It has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, preventing the movement of tankers and ships, which has disrupted the global oil and gas supply. The ensuing scarcity is raising the price of crude oil at a rate which is progressively threatening the stability of world economy.
Fifthly, with the war now well into the second week, it is not clear what the US and Israel have achieved so far or what their future goals are. The US President recently said that the war is going to end “soon”. A few days later he is saying that Iran is going to be hit “very hard”.
In such a scenario,it is difficult to predict by when this unfortunate war will come to an end.
Meanwhile, the world will continue to confront a situation of energy scarcity and increasing oil prices.
Since decades, the people of Iran have been suffering under the excesses of a despotic regime, while simultaneously enduring the pain of global economic sanctions against their country.
Iran as a nation had not been doing well even before this war. The people of Iran have become habituated to many kinds of privations.
In that sense, they will not be much worse off than they already were before this war.
However, a lingering war will certainly effect the various countries of this world more adversely.
For some developing nations, the disruption could mean economies reaching a breaking point.
Sixthly, the new Iranian leader has now come up with three difficult conditions for ending the war, which are the following: Recognition of Iran’s rights, Payment of reparations for damages incurred, and Guarantees against future aggression.
He has threatened to continue to wage war till these demands are met.
It is certainly easier to start a war than to end one.
It appears that events have spiralled in a manner that the US and Israel had not anticipated.
How the future will unfold is difficult to predict but some things will probably change for ever.
This war has exposed how fragile the security of Gulf States can be. It also seems to be eroding the myth of American invincibility and questioning its ability to provide security and stability to the region.
The fallout of these events could forever change the throbbing economies of the Gulf States.
The primacy of the US dollar as a currency of the international market could also be significantly eroded.
Finally, “Epic Fury” failing to bring Iran to its knees could further embolden Iran’s bellicose regime. A desperate Iran with its people long habituated to privations, may continue the war of attrition for a prolonged period in the future, unleashing intermittent violence in the region through its methods of asymmetrical warfare.
With every passing day, the war will keep raising the cost to wage it, not only for the combatants but also for the other nations of this world.
The paramount question then is – at what point will the combined pressure of the various nations of the world (including China), force the US-Israel coalition to end this terrible war?
Before that happens, some sensitive bridges may have to be crossed.
We should pray that the US-Israel coalition may not feel compelled to use more drastic weapons to bring the war to a quick end and also to salvage their military reputations.
We may also hope and pray that the dangerous war does not suck in other nations into it which could make things even worse than they already are!
(Anil Raturi is a retired IAS officer and former DGP, Uttarakhand.)
