The much-awaited results of the recently held assembly elections will become known on Monday. While most of India remains sanguine about whoever wins in Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry, there is considerable concern about what will happen in West Bengal. This is because the state is a tinderbox of serious issues that may explode if the outcome delivers more questions than answers. Already, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has issued a blanket order for her cadre to demand recounts wherever victory margins are around 500-700. If accepted by the Election Commission it will unnecessarily delay announcement of results and create more tension. As such, nothing would be better than a clear mandate that leaves no doubt in anybody’s mind. Going by the fact that there was a heavy turnout even during the repolling on 2 May, it does seem the people are fully involved in providing the mandate.
TMC leaders at every level have openly threatened to take action against those opposing the party if they win. This is partly the reason why it is necessary to keep the central forces in the state for another sixty days. However, going by the record of the party in the past, there is going to even more intimidation in the days to come. The law and order situation may decline to the point where even President’s Rule may become inevitable.
The same would be the case if there is a hung assembly or a narrow margin of victory. There will be a danger of defections taking place with ‘Operation Lotus’ coming into play. Such high-stakes battles are also seen as critical for the credibility of the national opposition bloc. A win for a regional leader like Mamata Banerjee could either solidify her stature or, if the margin is narrow, leave her vulnerable not only to defections but also reduce her bargaining power with the Centre. Contentious results often bring concerns about fairness and electoral roll manipulation to the forefront, impacting public trust in the democratic process. In many ways, therefore, a clear mandate in West Bengal will go a long way in restoring confidence in democracy and ensuring centre-state relations remain on an even path.
Results often determine whether national parties (like BJP or Congress) become more dominant or have to yield to the demands of regional allies. A resurgent regionalism, on its part, can halt ‘authoritarian’ or ‘centralising’ tendencies in national governance if dealt with in mature and responsible fashion.
