India has done its best to stay clear of getting directly involved in the current face-off in the Strait of Hormuz. This is because it has working relationships with all the countries directly involved in the war, as also those that are affected by it. Maintaining a balance requires a necessary distance. This is being done despite the fact that the resulting oil and gas supply crisis is stressing the economy in the short and long terms. There are also Indians residing in all the countries of the region who are in the line of fire.
Despite there being an ongoing ‘ceasefire’, Iran on Tuesday attacked UAE’s Fujairah that resulted in injuries to three Indian nationals. As a result, PM Modi has termed the targeting of civilians and infrastructure as ‘unacceptable’. This is clearly an open message to Iran that the conflict should not become a direct threat to the states, and the lives of individuals that are not directly involved. India has been in communication with the Iranians all this while but with diplomatic discretion. For India to be taking sides or getting involved would only complicate matters further. However, if Indians become victims, it is difficult to exercise restraint. Millions of expatriates in the Gulf face displacement; India alone has reportedly evacuated over 3,75,000 citizens so far. It must also be noted that India has good relations with the UAE, a strong economic partner.
It was being hoped that the ceasefire would extend into more give and take between the contending parties. The US and Iran are under internal pressure to come to a resolution. Unfortunately, the demand for Iran to drop its nuclear programme is proving a deal breaker. The alternative is for the US to destroy Iran’s military capability to the point where it cannot hold the Strait of Hormuz hostage. The US is attempting, in the meanwhile, to take control and clear the Strait for maritime passage, and the Fujairah attack seems to be an effort to thwart this objective.
It will not have been Iran’s objective, of course, to target Indians. However, it must realise that there are many living in the region. The statements issued by India should serve as a warning not to take matters in a direction where the conflict takes on larger dimensions. India has invested economically and diplomatically in Iran for a long time and this should not be jeopardised by strategic mistakes in the ongoing conflict.
