Bangladesh’s problems have become India’s headache. The outreach towards the East which included infrastructure projects in Bangladesh for increased connectivity is now threatened. There can be no doubt that this challenge to India’s plans has been backed by China and the ISI, possibly together. Both, former PM Sheikh Hasina and India have been caught by surprise.
India’s relations with Bangladesh have been premised on that country being a democracy. Unfortunately, it has become clear even more that running that democracy is not such an easy task, especially when there is difficulty in understanding the public mood. General dissatisfaction with the government can be exploited by extremists of various kinds to carry out the kind of coups witnessed in Dhaka. It may be recalled that radical Islamists have always been a force in that country from the time of the war of liberation, who not only supported Pakistan, but are committed to turning Bangladesh into an Islamic nation.
Sheikh Hasina’s ouster will, therefore, prove a big blow to the secularism she upheld and place religious minorities under great threat. As such, India’s first priority needs to be ensuring the safety of these sections of society. Next, of course, will be the challenge of securing the borders so that the possible surge of migrants is prevented.
On the political front, India will have to deal with the new dispensation in Dhaka. Although there is a lot of wishful thinking about who will run the country, the role of the Army and the Islamists will not only be greater but also increase over time. The idealism of the youth is bound to be subverted by vested interests of various kinds. Anyway, everybody will discover that running Bangladesh is no easy task. When it comes to providing aid and developmental support, nobody gives a better deal than India. Even Afghanistan under the Taliban has recognised that. If it is believed that China will shore up the economy, they need only to look at the experience of Pakistan and Sri Lanka in this regard. As such, once the leadership issue in Bangladesh is sorted out, and the prospects for future elections, India can set about renegotiating relations. Once the new set of leaders understand the cold reality, they will certainly want a return to normalcy. India may be unpopular because of its perceived support to Sheikh Hasina, but it cannot be ignored. That’s important leverage.
