By Satish Aparajit
The recent visit of India’s Prime Minister to the United States, and the apparent camaraderie displayed with the US President, has ignited discussions on tariff agreements, defence imports—particularly the potential acquisition of F-35 stealth fighters—and broader trade relations. In India, there is often a wave of enthusiasm whenever the Prime Minister meets global leaders, particularly those from powerful nations. However, what truly transpires in these diplomatic meetings, including interactions with influential figures like Elon Musk, remains a matter of speculation. The real question is: who needs whom more? Is it India seeking US support, or is it the US President who finds himself in need of a strategic ally like India?
The US-China Trade War: A Strategic Opportunity for India?
Former US President Donald Trump had openly taken on China, the world’s largest exporter to the United States. The American economy has been heavily dependent on Chinese goods, a dependency that the US itself encouraged by outsourcing manufacturing to China. In 2024, the US trade deficit with China stood at $295.4 billion, a staggering increase from $6 billion in 1985 and peaking at $361 billion during Trump’s first term. Meanwhile, China’s trade surplus soared to $104.84 billion, up from $75.31 billion the previous year, indicating its continued economic strength.
Trump’s approach to counter China’s economic dominance has included slapping tariffs on imports from multiple countries, including India. While India is not as severely impacted as China, it still faces tariffs as high as 25–29%, among the steepest imposed by the US. In response, China has retaliated with similar countermeasures. The bigger picture suggests that the US is keen on reducing China’s hegemony, recognising it as the only nation capable of challenging American global influence. To achieve this, Trump—a seasoned entrepreneur and negotiator—needs an ally. India, with its growing economy and strategic geopolitical position, fits the bill. This explains the warm gestures and diplomatic overtures seen during recent engagements.
Can India trust Trump?
While the optics of stronger US-India ties may appear promising, can India afford to place its trust in a leader like Trump, known for his unpredictable decision-making? One must consider the role of figures like Elon Musk, whose interests align more with personal business gains than with geopolitical strategy. Musk’s ventures in China have been highly successful, and despite his recent agreement to sell Tesla cars in India, his preference to import them from China rather than manufacture them in India raises questions about his long-term commitment. His earlier hesitation to enter the Indian market might have been influenced by the prospect of Trump’s return to power, which could afford him leverage over Indian policies.
A Dangerous Undertone?
There are growing concerns regarding Trump’s intent toward India. A recent report on a $21 million payment allegedly made to India for voter turnout has sparked controversy. Within a day, the claim shifted, stating that the money was meant for Bangladesh. Such inconsistencies are characteristic of Trump’s erratic political manoeuvres. This raises a critical question: is this the beginning of a shift in US-India relations, with the US subtly working to weaken India as it has done with other nations in the past?
Who Holds the Upper Hand?
While Prime Minister Modi may have faced certain diplomatic pressures during his US visit, he remains a formidable leader capable of taking on Trump, even in his own backyard. At this juncture, however, it is clear that Trump needs Modi more than Modi needs Trump. The US is seeking a reliable trading partner and a strategic ally to counterbalance China. Unfortunately, given Trump’s history, the reliability of the US as a long-term partner remains an open question. The coming months will determine whether India can leverage this geopolitical moment to its advantage or if it risks being entangled in the unpredictable web of US foreign policy.
(The author is a retired Wing Commander and Shaurya Chakra awardee)
