US President Donald Trump’s policies, domestic and international, have played a disruptive role by upending established conventions. After the Second World War, the US anchored the world order, be it through alliances or rivalries. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, it took on an even more expanded role, helping craft international institutions, providing aid, ostensibly promoting democracy, and generally making war upon whoever crossed its path. It is Trump’s contention that it not only cost the US a lot of money, but this ‘generosity’ also undermined its manufacturing capacity. It is another matter that it was for the benefit of the nation’s capitalists that the manufacturing was shifted to China to obtain cheap labour and greater profits. Over time China turned the situation to its advantage. In the present, it poses the biggest challenge to the US economy.
Trump’s petulant desire for disengagement with the present world order has sent many nations and international agencies, including the UNO, adrift. Everybody is having to restructure their alliances and economies, which is already resulting in a more realistic and up to date approach. Much of what was being taken for granted is being reconsidered and, perforce, responsibility is being taken for what the US managed earlier. The relook at NATO funding and European security is just one example.
Ironically, the developing situation may even be bringing long time adversaries India and China closer. India is already a major purchaser of Chinese goods and, if properly handled, there is potential for a more balanced and lucrative trade relationship. As neighbours, the two countries can form a major economic zone, independent of more distant markets. There are small signs visible already of a pragmatic approach evolving, with India opening up to Chinese tourists, the resumption of the Mansarovar Yatra, as well increased interaction between middle-level officials of the two countries. China will not change its colours overnight, of course, but border issues and cartographic aggression aside, the incentive for improvement in relations has increased. Indians as a people should better understand China’s motivations and fears, its internal politics, and civilisational compulsions. This would help demolish the stereotypes that inhibit positive engagement.
The concern that Trump has triggered globally, is already benefiting India as regards countries other than China. Prime Minister Modi has been harvesting this emotion by visiting countries big and small, presenting India as a more reliable partner for the future. The world order is certainly changing, and it will be India’s fault if it fails to take advantage.
