By R B Grover
Human development correlates with energy consumption. In a seminal paper published in Scientific American in 1971, Earl Cook traced the growth in per capita energy consumption through the stages of primitive to technological man. The primitive man needed energy only for food. Energy needs for home and commerce were added at the hunting stage. When humans became agriculturists, energy needs also arose from industry, agriculture and transportation. Energy needs for food, home, commerce, agriculture, and transportation continued to increase through industrial and technological stages. The present era belongs to digital technologies, and the digitalisation of the economy demands additional energy.
The metric “Human Development Index (HDI)” is a fair representation of human development. It combines three important indicators, viz., per capita income, education, and health. Using the correlation between HDI and per capita Final Energy Consumption (FEC), one can determine the level of energy needed to reach a specific HDI. As a member of the G20 grouping, India rubs shoulders with countries having an HDI above 0.9. Our estimates indicate that to reach 0.9, and considering further improvements in energy efficiency and electrification of end uses, India will need to generate about 24,000 Terra-Watt-Hours (TWh) per annum (Curr. Sci., 2022, 122(5), 517–527). A part of it, about 60 per cent, will be used as electricity, and the rest to generate hydrogen in electrolysers. Hydrogen is needed to decarbonise sectors such as the production of steel, fertilisers, plastics, etc. When alternative processes for producing hydrogen are developed at scale, less electricity will be needed.
The generation in 2023-24 was about 1950 TWh, and the CAGR in the recent past has been about 4.8 per cent. Maintaining a growth rate at about this level, it would be possible to generate 24,000 TWh per annum in four to five decades. However, there are two complexities.
First, India has to decarbonise its energy mix. Therefore, the growth in electricity generation must be accompanied by end-use electrification and a redesign of the energy mix. The present share of electricity in the FEC is about 22 per cent and it must rise significantly. The present energy mix is heavily reliant on fossil fuels, and they have to be replaced by energy sources that do not emit carbon. That implies that India has to generate more by hydro, nuclear, solar and wind. Hydro and wind potential in India is limited. India is densely populated; it precludes diverting large tracts of land for the deployment of solar photovoltaic. While the full potential of hydro, solar and wind must be exploited, their potential is insufficient to provide the energy level necessary to achieve an HDI above 0.9. Therefore, nuclear generation has to be ramped up, and until that is done, India will have to continue exploiting fossil fuels.
Second, solar and wind are intermittent sources. Electricity generated by photovoltaic cells or windmills is variable. Therefore, to match electricity supply with demand, it must be stored when it is in excess and augmented when the generation is less than the demand. Storage is expensive, and providing storage to address seasonal variations in solar and wind is prohibitively expensive. To provide affordable electricity to consumers, the electricity mix must have sufficient baseload generation capacity, that is, generation not dependent on seasons or time of day. Nuclear power plants are base-load and must be a part of a decarbonised energy mix.
Realising this imperative, the units of the Department of Atomic Energy, in cooperation with Indian industry, have been working to harness nuclear energy in a manner that the complete supply chain is indigenous. Only uranium has to be imported as India is not endowed with enough uranium. India has developed technology for fabricating fuel, producing heavy water, and manufacturing all equipment needed to support the construction of Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs). Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited has mastered the design and operation of PHWRs of various ratings, the highest being 700 MW. Three 700 MW units are already working, and the fourth is about to be completed. Two more are in an advanced stage of construction. In 2017, the Central Government sanctioned the construction of ten 700 MW PHWRs and work on these units is progressing.
A regulatory body was established in the 1980s and has developed the capability and capacity to regulate nuclear power plants. Bhabha Atomic Research Centre has developed technologies to reprocess spent nuclear fuel to recover valuable materials and handle nuclear waste. As a result of these efforts, nuclear power generation is a technically-feasible, affordable and safe option for India.
These successes have emboldened the Central Government to set a target of 100 GW of nuclear installed capacity by mid-century. Both houses of the Parliament have passed “The Sustainable Harnessing and Advancement of Nuclear Energy for Transforming India Bill, 2025”. The Bill is an overarching legislation and combines provisions included in the Atomic Energy Act, 1962, and the Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Act, 2010. It says that the existing Atomic Energy Regulatory Board “shall be deemed to have been constituted under this Act”. The Bill ensures that the prime responsibility for safety, security and safeguards lies with the licensee of the facility.
The target set for nuclear energy is ambitious. The Bill passed by the Parliament is a bold step. India needs ambitious targets and bold steps to become a developed country.
(The author is a distinguished nuclear scientist and Member of the Atomic Energy Commission who has significantly shaped India’s nuclear energy roadmap. He played a key role in the India–US Civil Nuclear Agreement and is the founding director of the Homi Bhabha National Institute.)
