Just days into the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 it had become clear to the world that it was a serious strategic mistake. This has been proven in the past three years as military and civilian casualties on both sides have mounted, there has been widespread destruction, and enormous economic loss. The only reason why it has not ended is because Russian President Vladimir Putin has been unwilling to admit his mistake. Even though there is support for the war in Russia, the people are fully aware of the facts. The biggest impediment to any peace process is Putin’s ego.
Whatever the strategy behind US President Donald Trump’s intervention in the conflict – if there is any – his declared regard for Putin and casting the blame for the war on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky does open the gates to a possible peace process. That is what Putin wants as an established narrative – that he was countering a neo-Nazi regime in Ukraine and the threat of NATO arriving on Russia’s borders. With his stand vindicated, he may perhaps call a halt to the suffering.
On the other hand, a meeting that is to take place between Trump and Zelensky on Friday is ostensibly to discuss a ‘deal’ worth hundreds of billions of dollars to reap Ukraine’s mineral wealth for a US guarantee on that nation’s freedom, sovereignty and security. Continued supply of US weapons and money to Ukraine will ensure that, if Russia persists, the war will continue without any resolution on the ground. Despite the support extended to Russia by China and traditional friends like India, the impact on the global economy will be severe.
The window for Putin to be cast as a hero and end the war is rapidly closing. Hopefully, while things are being worked out behind closed doors in capitals around the world, at least a ceasefire will come about as has happened in the Israel-Hamas conflict. Even in the worst of circumstances that always gives cause for hope.
