The opinion and exit polls have gone down the drain once again. The results of the assembly elections in Haryana have delivered the incumbent BJP a convincing win, while the Congress, which was positioned by the exit polls as the likely winner, failed to deliver. The very analysts that were just a day ago declaring Congress leader Deepender Singh Hooda the party’s trump card are now blaming him for the defeat, attributing it to his ‘arrogance’ towards other party leaders. This shows that pollsters should be more scientific in their forecasts, involving higher quality statisticians in the task. In the earlier Lok Sabha elections, the exit polls had come a similar cropper.
It is also important that people get out of the mindset of fighting elections and predicting results on the basis of just the caste paradigm. As stated earlier in this column, people have other identities than merely that of caste. It is imperative for political parties to understand that the ‘unit’ of the constitution is basically the individual and not interest groups. The more everybody involved inclines towards this approach, the better Indian democracy will function. Governments have to work hard to deliver, which will result even in spanking third terms. The Haryana result, with even higher numbers for the BJP, is an endorsement of Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini’s performance.
The improvement in the Haryana results is possibly, also, because the voters’ wished to correct the complacency that led to the reduction in BJP’s seats in the Lok Sabha contest. Also, the performance of Congress governments in states like Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh will also have played a role. Added to that will have been disagreement with the ‘anti-India’ statements made abroad by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi in the months before the elections.
The two assembly elections also highlight the fact that the Congress is being able to perform well only where it has the support of a regional party. It did well in UP because of the SP, and in J&K because of the National Conference. Where it has fought by itself, it has not done so well. Already, this failing is being targeted by its allies in Maharashtra, where it will have to concede further ground when it comes to seat sharing.
The voters of J&K have also delivered a balanced verdict, steering clear of separatist and extreme elements and, from among the moderates, decisively backing the National Conference-Congress alliance and rejecting the PDP. If this alliance acts with maturity in its dealings with the Centre, J&K will move towards further normalcy and a bright future. On its part, the Congress must introspect instead of blaming EVMs and the ECI.