Do the bypolls due on Wednesday in the assembly constituencies of Badrinath and Manglaur have any political significance? Uttarakhand as a state has given a clear mandate to the BJP, be it in assembly elections or those for the Lok Sabha. Is there need for the electorate to send a message to the politicians other than that of victory or defeat? Be it the complex mandate in the recent Indian Lok Sabha elections, or those in Britain and France, it has been seen that there are priorities beyond just bringing a party to power – it also involves who is rejected and why.
For instance, in the Badrinath constituency, it is not just about choosing between the BJP and Congress. The fact that the elected Congress MLA Rajendra Bhandari quit the party and joined the BJP implies there are local factors at work, which can very well prevail in the bypoll. The likelihood of a low turnout in what basically may be considered a contest of little significance in the larger context can also play a role. Is Bhandari capable of winning an assembly seat irrespective of which party he represents? Are the local BJP cadres, who have been dedicated to the party’s cause over the years, content with the situation? Is it a battle of ideologies irrespective of everything else? Those involved enough to vote will decide what message to send.
Similarly, in Manglaur, which has been a tough seat for the BJP because of its social texture, an ‘outsider’ is the party’s choice – Kartar Singh Bhadana. He is ranged against Qazi Nizamuddin of the Congress, who has been an MLA thrice before. The incumbent, however, was Sarwat Karim Ansari of the BSP, after whose passing the bypoll became necessary. How the BJP’s gambit plays out will be another interesting factor for the future.
The verdict in the state’s bypolls is also part of a larger battle between the BJP and the opposition alliance, as elections are being held in thirteen assembly constituencies across seven states. These include West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, MP, Punjab, HP and Uttarakhand. The state governments concerned will be eager to reinforce their mandate in the context of the newly established balance of power. Will the bypolls in Uttarakhand also reflect this bigger picture or be entirely ruled by the local situation? The results will certainly determine the future strategy of all parties concerned, if intelligently interpreted.