Prime Minister Narendra Modi has his task cut out as he heads to the US to meet President Donald Trump. It is not just about diplomacy but also hard economics, with challenges facing trade relations between the two countries in the context of Trump’s single point agenda of not allowing any country to benefit ‘unfairly’ from the US economy. Considering the fact that US is one of the countries with which India has a trade surplus, there will be pressure on Modi to make significant concessions. As has been pointed out by experts, India has already lowered trade barriers regarding certain commodities, but these have not been received well by the business community, here, leading to the ongoing fall in share prices.
One factor in play will be that Modi had invested heavily in ‘friendship’ with Trump during the latter’s first term. Hopefully, that will soften the US stand on several issues. It is worth noticing that India has in the past decade diversified procurement of its defence equipment, which has also benefited the US. This is despite the fact that, as compared to Russia, the Americans have never been reliable partners, always ready to cut off supplies to serve political interests. It is possible that Trump might substantially change this approach, but this remains to be seen. On the other hand, it is a fact that he is notoriously ‘transactional’ in his dealings and psychologically suffers from mood swings.
Modi will meet Trump after interacting with French President Emmanuel Macron, who is one of Europe’s many leaders facing US pressure. They will probably discuss a suitable strategy to deal with the situation. It must not be forgotten that France, too, has become a reliable defence supplier to India and there is greater understanding between the two countries than ever before.
In the meanwhile, there are signs from the US side of a break from Biden era policies towards India. There has been a policy reversal on the targeting of Indian businesses and other entities. This augurs well for the Modi-Trump meeting. There is no doubt that Modi will be well-prepared to deal with US concerns, which is why there has been no hesitation on being among the first world leaders to meet Trump after his return to the top job. It will also be important for the two leaders to work out a strategy regarding China, a common adversary in many ways.
