Nobody has a clear idea about why US President Donald Trump visited China. Except for handshakes and carefully calibrated speeches, not much emerged from his interaction with President Xi Jinping. It is not as if China admires Trump or the US so much as to make unnecessary concessions on trade and Taiwan. In fact, post the visit, it is Trump who has indicated that ‘distant’ Taiwan is not so much America’s responsibility. Also, the mention by Jinping of the Thucydides Tramp was a way of saying ‘we are coming for you’. This reveals that all the drama in the welcome only concealed the contempt the Communist establishment in China has for the US. This was answered in kind by Trump’s entourage when it dumped everything obtained in China during the visit in the garbage bin.
Whatever happens in the future, China and the US are much too intertwined to really hurt each other in the present. China’s is an export-oriented market that cannot afford too much disruption in its relations with the world’s large economies. It may be ascending as a military power but, going by the fate of the US operation in Iran, there is no guarantee what would emerge from any conflict nowadays. Its ability to influence even its client states like Pakistan is limited because it lacks the diplomatic skills. It is much better at doing underhand things such as technologically snooping on others and using its citizens as spies.
If Trump thought that including top American billionaires in his entourage could lead to mutually beneficial deals with their Chinese counterparts, he was bound to be disappointed. The Chinese state maintains a tight control over its entrepreneurs and industrialists so that they do not stray from government policy.
The two nations agreed that the Strait of Hormuz needs to be opened. Trump will be hoping that China, which is a big customer of Iranian oil, will be able to persuade Iran to accept US terms for restoration of peace. But, what guarantees can China give in return? Presently, none. It must be noted, however, that its need for removal of the blockade is greater than that of the US.
The impact of the visit on US politics will soon become visible. While Trump, as usual, will make huge claims regard what it achieved, the political establishment will be asking questions difficult to answer beyond rhetoric. In the meanwhile, the rest of the world will continue to suffer.
