Now the opposition is complaining about the election schedule for Keralam, Assam, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Puducherry, claiming it has been done for the BJP’s convenience. This is strange because, till now, it has seemed that it is only the BJP that has been preparing for the coming contest, while other parties (except partly the DMK) have been grandstanding in Parliament on Trump, Epstein files, caste identity, etc. Even routine actions taken by the Election Commission, such as transferring officers after the Model Code of Conduct has come into force, are being opposed by walking out of parliament.
All this when experts agree that, except for Assam, the BJP is not a traditional force in Keralam, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. It rules Puducherry with alliance partners. The DMK’s biggest problem is possible anti-incumbency and the Vijay factor, largely because the AIADMK has suffered a meltdown over the years. Even the latter’s tie-up with the BJP has not been properly worked out.
In Keralam, despite the poor performance of the LDF and the widespread corruption, the Congress has been unable to present itself as a viable alternative, not least because of the failure of the high command to understand the nuances of local politics. The BJP has been making inroads into the state, such as by winning the Thiruvananthapuram mayor’s election, but how this will impact at the state level is still unclear.
The TMC in West Bengal has entrenched itself in the system on the basis of Muslim support, intimidation of the general population, and manipulation of voter lists with inclusion of illegal immigrants. This is why it has been so opposed to the SIR exercise. BJP’s hope of taking power is only possible if illegal voters are sufficiently reduced and there is disillusionment among Hindus with CM Mamata Banerjee’s excessive appeasement of the ‘minority’ community.
The general opinion among political analysts is that, while the BJP may get results from its strenuous efforts to obtain a larger number of votes than earlier, the regional parties will still retain the upper hand. This, they feel, would provide these parties a continued role in Indian democracy. This is important because, in the next couple of years, a nationwide consensus will need to be built on issues like delimitation, women’s reservation, the caste factor that will emerge from the census, etc. Finally, of course, the BJP will require a balance in the South regarding the erosion of votes in the North in the previous Lok Sabha elections. A little bit of give and take between it and the non-Congress opposition will be needed to continue in power.
