The requirement of a two-thirds majority ensured that the NDA Government’s attempt to amend the Women’s Reservation Act was defeated. For once the opposition had the opportunity to get the better of the government in the Lok Sabha and that proved too much of an attraction. It failed to seriously consider the opportunity that was being provided to implement a paradigm changing bill. This short-sighted approach will come with expensive consequences in political terms.
As mentioned earlier in this column, the original act required the next census to be held first, followed by delimitation. This means that the population decrease in the southern states will have to be reflected in the delimitation process. The principle of ‘equal’ value of each vote will require an increase in Lok Sabha constituencies of the north. Also, the enumeration of the castes will create all kinds of demands, including raising the reservation ceiling. The likely rise in the Muslim population will also provide fuel to those who play communal and appeasement politics.
The time taken will ensure that women’s reservation will not become available in the next Lok Sabha elections that are to take place in 2029. So, basically the opposition ensured that India missed the boat on an important reform.
In the immediate context, the impact of these developments on the coming assembly elections in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu remains to be seen. Prime Minister Modi wasted no time at all in leveraging the issue with his speech on 18 April and apologising to the nation’s women. The BJP has launched nationwide protests against this intransigence of the opposition alliance. There is anti-incumbency in the two states going to the polls and if this issue is properly communicated there is likely to be a further tilt.
The approach adopted by regional parties of the South on the amendment is quite incomprehensible. Despite having been given an excellent opportunity to ensure a ‘freeze’ on their percentage of seats with an overall fifty percent increase, they will now witness a decline in their representation. Essentially they have shot themselves in the foot. It raises questions about the quality of the leadership, which is obviously unable to put people’s interest above its collective ego. Since ‘protecting the constitution’ was used as an excuse to defeat the amendment, the opposition will now have to abide by it when delimitation takes place. What an irony that will be!
