By Ashish Singh
Georgia has seen elections recently. Election results have caused tensions between the ruling party and the opposition. Georgia has had special relations with Russia since the Soviet Era. Thus, it is imperative to check the recent events and their possible implications. I spoke with Yevgeny Ivanov, a Russia based expert on the Caucasus and Central Asia. Here is what he said:
Georgia is a small country in the South Caucasus. The country’s residents call their homeland Sakartvelo, which means “land of the Kartvelians”. This name helps to distinguish Georgia from the American state of Georgia. In the 19th century, the Georgian kingdoms became part of the Russian Empire. In the 20th century, Georgia was a republic within the USSR.
At the end of October, parliamentary elections were held in Georgia-Sakartvelo. The ruling party “Georgian Dream” won. The opposition refused to recognise the election results. They were supported by the country’s president, Salome Zurabishvili.
The “Georgian Dream” party was congratulated on its victory by the leaders of Hungary, Turkey, China, and Azerbaijan. Representatives of the European Union and a number of American politicians expressed doubts about the fairness of the elections.
A political crisis began. Opposition parties brought their supporters out onto the streets several times. The results at several polling stations were challenged in court and annulled, but these votes do not change the overall picture.
The Georgian Dream has stated that it is ready to begin work in the new convocation of parliament even if other parties give up their mandates.
What is the nature of this confrontation? Why is the political situation in Georgia important for international processes?
Before the elections, the Georgian Dream adopted two resonant laws. The first law tightens regulation of the activities of organisations receiving money from abroad. The second restricts the propaganda of non-traditional values. At first glance, the actions of the Georgian Dream appear pro-Russian. However, first and foremost, the ruling party is pursuing a policy in its own interests. The new laws undermine the financial and ideological base of the largest opposition parties, primarily the United National Movement. Many of the party’s supporters were associated with NGOs that receive grants from the United States and the European Union for promoting a modern Western agenda in Georgia. Thus, Bidzina Ivanishvili is weakening his main rival, the United National Movement.
And although from the outside the new laws look like a replication of Russian laws, in practice the adoption of these amendments is aimed at solving domestic political problems, and not pleasing Moscow. One way or another, Ivanishvili managed to kill two birds with one stone.
A week before the elections in Georgia, the first round of presidential elections was held in Moldova, another country of the former USSR. Simultaneously with the presidential elections, Moldovan citizens participated in a referendum on the inclusion of a clause in the Constitution of Moldova about the country’s desire to join the European Union. With a minimal advantage of 50.35% against 49.65%, the pro-European option won. This result cannot be called convincing. It is clear that Moldovan society is split in two. Older generations, ethnic minorities and companies oriented towards Russia spoke out against. Young people who want to study and work in EU countries spoke out “for”.
A similar situation is in Georgia-Sakartvelo. Moreover, unlike Moldova, Georgia does not have a land border with the European Union, which significantly complicates full integration into the Union. Georgian goods can enter the EU by land either through Russia or through Turkey. Georgia has access to the ports of Romania and Bulgaria via the Black Sea, but Georgia has limited capacity to provide navigation.
In any case, Georgia-Sakartvelo does not abandon its contacts with Europe. One of the first to congratulate the Georgian Dream on its victory was Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who arrived in Tbilisi. In the second half of 2024, Hungary holds the presidency of the European Council. Therefore, Orban’s visit formally emphasises Georgia’s connection with the EU. However, Brussels stated that the Hungarian Prime Minister arrived in Tbilisi not as an EU representative, but on his own initiative. That is, the Georgian Dream maintains close ties with conservative Europe and distances itself from left-liberal Europe.
In conclusion, it can be said that Georgia-Sakartvelo is going through an important fork in its modern history. If the Georgian Dream manages to defend the election results and assemble a new convocation of parliament, then the ruling party will have four years ahead to weaken the old opposition. Relations with Russia will be more pragmatic than ideological, as it was under Mikheil Saakashvili. Georgia will not become a weapon against Russia, but in return will receive access to the Russian market and flows of Russian tourists, who fill the economy of Georgia-Sakartvelo with money.
