The landslide victory of the ruling Mahayuti alliance in Maharashtra’s Nagar Parishad and Nagar Panchayat elections, despite ‘friendly’ contests between candidates of the BJP, Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde) and the NCP (Ajit Pawar), is not just indicative of the increased polarisation of votes at the grassroots, but also the rejection of dynastic politics. The ruling alliance may be heavily ‘saffron’ in its ideology, but it is also more ‘representative’ of the people’s aspirations. There is a limit to how much the opposition (Maha Vikas Aghadi) can run on the basis of its leaders being ‘born to the role’. There is a limit, for instance, to how much the Uddhav Thackeray faction of the Shiv Sena can play the Bal Thackeray card.
The results do not bode well for the opposition in the coming municipal corporation elections, particularly the rich Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation. Even though the Shiv Sena (UBT) has much of its core following in the Mumbai area, it is bound to pay the price for frequently compromising on the Hindutva ideology by toeing the ‘secular appeasement’ of its partners. The Sharad Pawar faction of the NCP is entirely dependent on the personality of its founder and will be further tested when caste, economic and community interests clash at the ground level. The Congress has a scattered following that has managed to perform a little better than its partners, but the big question is whether it can advance by going it alone. Would the anti-BJP vote, what remains of it in Maharashtra, be instrumental in the party’s recovery?
There is also the national perspective in which the situation needs to be viewed. The Rahul Gandhi factor and how it is affecting the Congress fortunes has to be considered. The projected party ideology has sidetracked considerably from its traditional conservative approach and taken on a radical leftist colour. How many of Maharashtra’s voters would accept it in a state where the private sector has played an important role in bringing about prosperity and social change? There is no doubt that without Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar by its side, the party’s prospects will plunge further. This is a conundrum difficult to overcome and it will not get done by blaming the EVMs.
In contrast, the BJP has a nationalistic approach that is respectful of local sentiments and thus finds greater acceptability. Why then should there be so much surprise expressed at its successes?
