EXIT POLL- 2024
By Arun Pratap Singh
Dehradun, 1 Jun: According to most of the Exit Polls being broadcast this evening, BJP is likely not only to gain majority across the country and retain power at the Centre, but is also likely to retain all the 5 Lok Sabha Constituencies in Uttarakhand. If this happens, it will be a hattrick for the BJP in Uttarakhand.
As per several Exit Polls, the vote share difference between the BJP and Congress in Uttarakhand is very wide. BJP has been reported in the exit polls to be gaining 63 percent of votes while the Congress vote share has been shown to have reduced to around 33 percent only while others are shown to have managed a vote share of just 4 percent.
At the same time, some exit polls such as broadcast on News 24 has claimed that BJP may win 4 to 5 seats with a possible loss of 1 seat, while Congress may be able to gain up to 1 seat in Uttarakhand.
It may be recalled that Uttarakhand had polling on 19 April during the first phase of polling. Uttarakhand had reported to have witnessed around 58 percent of polling.
In the parliamentary seats of the hills, 30 percent i.e. 21 assembly constituencies had witnessed a voting percentage of less than 50 percent. Almora’s Salt seat had the lowest voting percentage in the state at 32 percent, while Haridwar Rural had the highest voting percentage of 73.21 percent, but except for Srinagar Garhwal assembly, voting percentage has declined in all other seats of the state as compared to 2019 Lok Sabha Polls.
Both the BJP and Congress have been claiming victory since the day of polling in Uttarakhand though the experts and political analysts were usually giving a clear edge to the BJP. It should however be remembered that while the Exit Polls tend to give a direction of which way the polling has gone, the real results can only be seen on 4 June, when the counting will be held across the country
On 19, April, voting was held in five Lok Sabha seats of Uttarakhand, namely Haridwar, Tehri, Pauri Garhwal, Almora and Nainital-Udham Singh Nagar seat. There was 57.24 percent voting in the state. Voting percentage has fallen in the state this time. This time a significant decline has been recorded as compared to the year 2019. The Election Commission had set a target of 75 percent voting, but only 57.24 voting could take place while adding postal ballots, the voting percentage of around 58 percent can be estimated in Uttarakhand.
BJP had repeated three of its past MPs as candidates namely, Mala Rajya Laxmi Shah from Tehri, Ajay Bhatt from Nainital and Ajay Tamta from Almora-Pithoragarh but dropped two of its MPs, namely Ramesh Pokhriyal Nishank from Haridwar and Tirath Singh Rawat from Pauri. Instead, former Chief Minister Trivendra Singh Rawat was declared as BJP candidate from Haridwar and former Rajya Sabha MP Anil Baluni was declared the BJP candidate from Pauri.
Congress on the other hand, had declared, Virender Rawat, the son of veteran Congress leader Harish Rawat as its candidate from Haridwar, repeated Pradeep Tamta as candidate from Almora-Pithoragarh seat, former PCC Chief Ganesh Godiyal from Pauri seat, Prakash Joshi from Nainital and Jot Singh Gunsola from Tehri. It may be recalled that BJP and Congress have a direct fight with each other in the state though BSP also contested all the seats and some independent candidates also created some hype.
