The ‘chemistry’ of the sixteenth encounter between Prime Minister Modi and President Putin during the recent bilateral goes on to show that India has made a clear declaration of its strong preference for its strategic partnership and political relations with Russia. As the successor state to the USSR, Russia stood with India through thick and thin, even as the US policy towards India has often seen a flip-flop depending on the political headwinds of their domestic policy. The support of Russia has been consistent – in the UNSC as well as on our border issues with our difficult neighbours. As a reciprocal measure, India has refused to condemn Russia, refrained from adverse voting against it in the UN, and disregarded Western threats of sanctions against energy imports from Russia.
The wide-ranging issues that the two leaders discussed included the Ukraine War, and its impact on global food and energy security as well as trade and payment mechanisms. This is important in the context of the wide trade deficit between the two: imports from Russia are fifteen times higher than exports from India. Also on the agenda is collaboration in the energy sector, starting with the supply of Soviet crude to the Vadinar Refinery in Gujarat and issues of connectivity, especially the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC) via Iran’s Bandar Abbas port, and the North Sea route to build India’s access to Russia and the Arctic as well. However, the elephant in the room is the China factor. In a rather interesting dynamic of global polity, Russia is a common and trusted friend to both China and India who do not meet eye to eye on most issues.
India is totally opposed to the Belt and Road Initiative as well as the CPEC and the presence of the Chinese armada near the straits of Malacca. China, on the other hand, has often expressed its apprehensions on the emerging QUAD – the military alliance amongst US, India, Australia and Japan. The joint exercises have been perceived as ‘provocative’ by China. But Russia’s growing dependence on China represents a serious concern for India. Whereas in the past Russia was the dominant partner in the relationship, given the asymmetry of political and economic power, there is a fear that Russia might become a junior partner of this alliance, which will not be in the best interests of India. Therefore, in our own interest, we have to strengthen our relationship with Russia by meeting the demand for their consumer goods, and opening up new frontiers in science and technology where both countries can leverage each other’s strengths.
