Strategic Alignment and the Mandala Theory
By Ashish Singh
India’s foreign policy, shaped by its rich civilisational legacy, draws from thinkers like Kautilya, whose Arthashastra remains relevant in understanding state behaviour and diplomacy. Central to Kautilya’s thinking is the Mandala Theory, which offers a framework to assess India’s relations with its neighbours and beyond. While over 2,300 years old, this theory helps explain India’s strategic alliances and rivalries in today’s complex geopolitical landscape.
Kautilya’s Mandala Theory: A Classical Framework Reimagined
At the heart of the Mandala Theory lies the concept of concentric circles. The “Vijigishu” (aspiring ruler), in this case, India, occupies the centre, surrounded by immediate neighbours (the first ring) and their neighbours (the second ring). Kautilya emphasised that strategic alliances should be based on pragmatic calculations rather than rigid loyalty. Neighbours of enemies could become allies, reflecting the fluidity of relationships based on shared strategic interests rather than sentiment.
This classical theory still provides valuable insights into India’s foreign relations today, particularly with countries like Pakistan, China, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. India’s diplomacy reflects the need to navigate a web of alliances, rivalries, and opportunities, shaped by both ancient wisdom and modern geopolitics.
India’s Foreign Relations: A Modern Assessment
To assess India’s strategic alignment with its neighbours, the Strategic Alignment Index (SAI) is a useful tool. The SAI is a comprehensive, data-driven measure that evaluates relationships based on three critical dimensions: military cooperation, economic cooperation, and multilateral cooperation. Each of these dimensions is rated on a scale of 1 to 5, using data from credible sources like SIPRI, the World Bank, and India’s Ministry of External Affairs. The SAI provides a snapshot of the evolving dynamics of India’s foreign relations, enabling a clear assessment of cooperation, rivalries, and strategic positioning in the region.
Pakistan: The Persistent Rival
India’s relationship with Pakistan is marked by a history of rivalry, particularly over Kashmir. Despite limited informal economic exchanges, security concerns dominate the relationship, resulting in a low SAI score for Pakistan. Military and multilateral cooperation score a 1, reflecting hostility, while economic cooperation stands at a 2, indicating minimal trade. This relationship remains entrenched in historical animosities, making significant changes unlikely in the near future.
China: A Complex Strategic Rival
China presents a dual challenge for India. While economic ties, particularly trade, are strong, territorial disputes, notably over the Line of Actual Control (LAC), continue to cause friction. The SAI score for China reflects this complexity: military cooperation scores 2, economic cooperation scores 4, and multilateral cooperation scores 3. India’s strategy is to cautiously engage China, balancing economic collaboration with firm stances on security issues, making China both a strategic rival and an economic partner.
Bangladesh: A Key Ally in India’s Regional Strategy
In contrast to Pakistan, India shares a strong, cooperative relationship with Bangladesh. Historical ties, shared culture, and India’s role in Bangladesh’s 1971 independence form the foundation of a robust partnership. The SAI score for Bangladesh reflects this close cooperation: military cooperation rates 4, economic cooperation rates 5, and multilateral cooperation scores 5, underscoring the importance of Bangladesh in India’s regional strategy. This relationship is critical to India’s efforts to counterbalance Pakistan’s influence and maintain stability in South Asia.
Sri Lanka: Ambivalent but Important
Sri Lanka holds an ambivalent position in India’s Mandala. Historically a close ally, Sri Lanka’s growing engagement with China, especially through Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects, complicates its relationship with India. Despite this, India maintains strong investments in Sri Lanka’s infrastructure and disaster relief efforts. The SAI score for Sri Lanka is moderate: military cooperation scores 3, economic cooperation scores 4, and multilateral cooperation scores 3. The growing ties between Sri Lanka and China, however, challenge India’s regional influence, adding strategic ambiguity to the relationship.
Second-Ring Allies: Expanding the Indo-Pacific Strategy
India’s second-ring allies, such as Japan and Vietnam, are increasingly important in the Indo-Pacific. These countries share India’s concerns over China’s assertiveness in the region. India and Vietnam enjoy strong defence ties, including joint military exercises, and are expanding economic cooperation. Similarly, Japan is a crucial partner, with growing defence and economic cooperation, including infrastructure investments in India. Both countries are vital components of India’s broader Indo-Pacific strategy, as evidenced by their involvement in the Quad, which aims to counterbalance China’s growing influence in the region.
Conclusion: A Dynamic and Pragmatic Foreign Policy
India’s foreign policy today is shaped by both ancient wisdom and modern geopolitical realities. Kautilya’s Mandala Theory offers a valuable framework for understanding the fluid and pragmatic nature of India’s alliances and rivalries. The SAI provides a data-driven approach to assess these relationships, which range from adversarial to cooperative. India’s ability to manage its complex neighbourhood dynamics will be key to shaping a stable and secure regional order, balancing security concerns with economic opportunities, and adapting to changing global conditions.
India’s foreign policy continues to evolve, navigating both traditional alliances and new partnerships in the Indo-Pacific. By leveraging both historical insights and contemporary strategies, India can maintain its regional influence and contribute to a more stable global order.
(Ashish Singh is a social and political scientist.)
