With election dates announced for the Jharkhand and Maharashtra assemblies and a slew of bypolls across several states, the two major rivals, the NDA and the INDI alliance, will face-off again to obtain dominance. While the Congress is still reeling from the defeat in Haryana, it will have to recover quickly to take on challenges of even greater consequence. On its part, Jharkhand’s ruling JMM will contest from a relatively better position against an ambitious NDA that has recently won in Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. While this will be a direct contest, the one in Maharashtra will be one involving complex permutations and combinations.
While the BJP has been winning the largest number of seats in Maharashtra, without traditional ally, the Shiv Sena, it falls short of a majority. The ‘betrayal’ by Uddhav Thackeray of not only this alliance but Balasaheb Thackeray’s abhorrence for the Congress, opened the doors for the Maha Vikas Aghadi in a state that is otherwise saffron minded. The BJP rules today by forging the Maha Yuti Alliance, which comprises breakaway groups from the NCP and original Shiv Sena. This group seeks to undo the ‘dynastic’ politics that is rife within the opposition. It seeks to present the current CM as representing the sections of society that have been deprived of their due rights.
The problem is that the Lok Sabha elections threw up a different picture, as was the case in Haryana. The opposition not only held on to its vote bank, but also made inroads into the Maha Yuti support base. The challenge for the ruling alliance is to persuade the voters that its model of governance is not only superior but has also already been delivered through various schemes. Maha Yuti’s advantage is that it is more integrated and already operating according to a plan. On the other hand, the opposition is determined to bring down the government but lacks the kind of unity required to agree on seat distribution and overall leadership. As in J&K, the Congress is likely to be the weakest link, unable to deliver its part of the bargain, while seeking an inordinate share of the leadership.
The Maha Yuti has already come up with its ‘report card’ and will be on the campaign trail well before the opposition. It is only the latent vote of the Maha Aghadi that stands in its way. In the present circumstances, it is going to be a tough contest, and it would be jumping the gun to predict the result.