Iran conducted a war against Israel for a long time through proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis, et al. Iranian leaders believed that this allowed them to pursue goals of their theocratic ideology from a distance, with only an occasional confrontation with Israel. However, Israel not only can see beyond this pretence, but has for long been determined to strike at the roots of this animosity. So, now, having inflicted heavy damage on Hamas and Hezbollah, it has directly taken on Iran.
While Israel prepared for the ideological battle in several ways, the present conflict was triggered by the 7 October 2023 attack. It was not a time of Israel’s choosing. The attack was seen not just as the atrocity it was, but also as a threat to Israel’s very existence. A lack of adequate response would have led Hamas to believe it could continue to inflict such suffering on Israeli citizens with impunity. (A similar belief has inspired Pakistan’s policymakers against India, which for long absorbed the pain and generally exercised restraint.) However, Israel does not have anything like India’s strategic depth and even the slightest concession costs it plenty.
That Israel has now taken on Iran indicates that it believes the Hamas and Hezbollah have been rendered relatively powerless. Its targeted strikes against Iran, too, have a strategic intent – inflicting damage that will cripple that country’s war-machine for some time to come, particularly its nuclear programme. Many of Iran’s top commanders have been eliminated and, undoubtedly, damage done to the morale of the armed forces. Prime Minister Netanyahu has even claimed that elimination of Iran’s ‘Supreme Commander’ would be a pivotal blow.
There is no doubt that the Iranian plan was also to scuttle the growing understanding between the Arab states and Israel on the way forward. This has its roots in the Shia-Sunni rivalry for dominance over the Islamic world. It must be noted that the Arabs are pitching strongly for peace on behalf of the suffering Palestinians and not because they are committed ideologically to the destruction of Israel. Their concern is to prepare for the post-oil global economy by investing petro-dollars in other lucrative sectors. Another war that envelops the region would completely overturn such plans.
Except for Trump’s USA, most militarily advanced countries are unwilling to back Israel in its ongoing campaign. As such, the window of opportunity is closing on inflicting a decisive defeat upon Iran and its proxies. This would imply that, in the next couple of weeks, at least, the war is only going to intensify. The world will look on in despair.
